Hurricane Milton. Model trends compared to 18z. Forecast for 5pm Wednesday.
HWRF 8.5mb stronger, HMON 8.8mb weaker, HAFS-A 28.9mb stronger, HAFS-B 17.7mb stronger.
To my untrained eye it seems unlikely to hit Tampa unless we see wobbles to the north or north-northeast at times. Based on the latest satellite trends it's going to be a bit of a tough task to bring Milton as far north as Tampa, even though several models continue to suggest this. I think it's going to be much closer to Fort Myers. We shall see...
12z ECMWF in 12 hours 3 minutes
I'm guessing it would have to be either in the Bering Sea, the Icelandic Low region of the north Atlantic, or somewhere in the Southern Ocean, particularly the Pacific stretch between Australia and South America.