Since I'm up with muscle spasms we might as well model ride the 12z GFS. Day 1 (4-run trend)

Yep, and ya gotta like that tilt.

GRR had (has?) a MET William, aka Bill who always did very upbeat winter AFD's. Haven't seen his WMD initials in quite a while now so guessing he's moved-on? Thought maybe he'd x-fered up to APX: Rest of the Forecast Period: Advertised warmup continues to remain in the cards, no matter how much this snow-loving meteorologist tries to avoid it. (but checked the initials and no, not WDM) Must be great to work in a snowy place and actually LIKE it. The old guard MET's at GRR are very "Meh" when it comes to winter as seen in the overnight AFD.

This morning was our coldest readings since last January 17th with temperatures dropping to as low as 8.8 degrees at Nottingham and 9.8 degrees at Warwick Park. Today will be about 20 degrees below our normal high temperatures in the low to mid 40's. More spots tonight may drop into the single digits for low temperatures. Well below normal again tomorrow before we moderate back to close to normal for the remainder of 2024. There is a chance of a little snow toward Christmas Eve morning and again by Friday night.

Looking like Harrison will ride the line between GRR's "1 to 3 - nothing see" and APX's 1-75 and east headliner event: 2:38 am AFD: Still possible for some changes in where this favorable band of snow materializes, but we are getting close enough to draw the following conclusions: the Monday morning commute will be dicey due to sloppy / snow covered roads... and while headlines will not be hoisted at this forecast update, they will likely be needed in the coming cycle(s)... most likely a Winter Weather Advisory, though it not impossible for some areas within that frontogenesis band to approach Warning criteria snowfall amounts. Not sure their timeframe for "morning commute" but this could get interesting (again) for my 6 am drive: Monday Snow: Widespread accumulating snowfall will be overspreading the region at the beginning of the forecast period. Favorable jet streak dynamics will support exquisite lift across the region, likely leading to a "thump" of snow that probably overlaps the morning commute for much of northern Michigan. This system will have quite the moisture concentration to contend with... PWATs swell up to 200% above normal (a +2.0-2.5 sigma anomaly), and with a deep 850mb moisture connection to the Gulf, TROWAL structure will likely lead to an impressive frontogenesis response over the region