Speaking of cold temperatures, the 00z AIFS was bonechillingly cold for the first week of December. -23º for FSD.

Yeah the 00z run nailed areas to the south of here. I think the overall message remains the same though - there may be chances of some legit snow after Thanksgiving for somewhere in our sub. We have to get that initial shot of cold air in here first, which looks to happen right around the holiday.

Agreed. Lahares will be devastating. Likely wouldn’t be a lateral blast like St Helens, but potentially more devastating to property.

I prefer the OOz run of the GFS.

Yep just like last year. It gets our hopes up, looks to drop big time, then it gets watered down towards the zero line, then poof gone to the + side just like that. sad times. It’s nearly 2026 and you would think the mega computers would have a better grasp on the atmospheric future…But it seems like nothing has changed since the times of Harry’s 5 day forecast and his star rating system. And Wayne Cody letting us know how bad the Seahawks and Mariners played.