I think the excess death tally from the 2021 event was around 1400.

Nice run per the ECMWF... consistent warmth rather heat spikes and then big crashes. Also lovely day at home with scenic sky of high clouds. Looks like nice weather continues after we get home.

Luckily for you, but not so much for the West. Some of us rather enjoyed the -PDO/-ENSO stretch.

Kind of figured we were going to pay for the warm spring at some point. Hopefully there is some more consistent warmth by the second part of May. I forgot how cool last May was. I do recall having a low in the 30s at the beginning of June.

That huge 3+ year Niña 98/99 - 00/01 stored a massive amount of heat in the oceans, more than 2X what was released during the 97/98 Niño. Which is why there was such a substantial spike in temperatures afterwards. Same was true after the recent 3 year Niña from 2020/21 to 2022/23. Ideally after a strong/super Niño you want to avoid a snap back into La Niña to take advantage of the heat release long term. We have been stuck under a Niña/enhanced state baseline for decades now, which is responsible for the accelerated warming. Luckily this might be an opportunity for a change. We just recently came off a very strong Niño, and the upcoming strong/super niño is unlikely to flip back to La Niña for 2027/28 given the alignment of the QBO and stage of PMM/IPWP vacillation cycle. CERES data reveals substantial baseline increase in Outgoing Radiation from the TOA layer since the 2023/24 Niño, so the system has been shedding heat very efficiently (a marked change from previous years).