Rain shower passing through. The main event looks to be offshore still.

Alright, so I’ll bookmark the current Euro QPF output at airports verbatim, then we’ll compare with actual results in 3 days? At least this time we’ll have irrefutable evidence either way. I don’t see any reason QPF should systemically fall beyond +/- 10% of current projections, as modeled. How overdone are the totals? Let’s hear your call.

The 4th is sunny on the 12Z ECMWF... the ULL lifting north instead of east lends itself to quicker clearing.

Living here. Euro is prone to overdo our precip, usually by a lot. You can ask others who live here, but I am sure you will think what you want, much like water temps.

Looks like the trough exits quickly for a decent 4th though verbatim. Although I don’t have access to the cloud maps so maybe a marine layer day.