TT-SEA Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 Sorry, you already disavowed your thoughts for the summer from May. The contest is on record. Anyone here can claim it's not a "shocker". Meaningless. What we know for fact is that pretty much no one was predicting a very warm August. Which of course could still fall apart, if things got crazy the last week of the month. But its not a shocker to me. Had to put something down but was thinking either August or September would be warm and picked September. Might be both this year. Not sure yet. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 But its not a shocker to me. Had to put something down but was thinking either August or September would be warm and picked September. Might be both this year. Not sure yet.Bullshit. 4 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 One place that has definitely been troughy/cool this summer is the Arctic. The ice was in terrible shape in late May, and many prognosticators were expecting a record ice melt. But thanks to a strong and persistent polar vortex most of the summer, a new record isn't even close to attainable. Maybe Phil has some insight into what this could mean, if anything, going into this winter.Well, though the sea ice concentration doesn't have a huge impact in terms of radiation fluxes into the stratosphere, the state of the NAM itself begins to matter somewhat right about now in regards to the feedback process that drives the development of the wintertime PV/NAM. If we're talking about strat/PV influence, we'd prefer blocking/anticyclonic flow in the polar upper troposphere during the late summer/autumn, to slow down/reduce the coupling between the developing PV and the tropospheric circulation. If we (for whatever reason, of which there could be many) progress into a +NAM state during S/O/N, this can/will constructively feed back both kinematically and thermodynamically with the developing stratospheric PV. If the vortex can stack vertically, it can/will strengthen exponentially and unabatedly until bottom-up wave amplification can tilt/destabilize it sufficiently to either halt the strengthening it induce a self destruction (SSW/Wave2 response). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 A warm August would definitely be a surprise to me. A very big surprise, actually. Nothing wrong with admitting that. Mother Nature is a complicated piece of work. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 But its not a shocker to me. Had to put something down but was thinking either August or September would be warm and picked September. Might be both this year. Not sure yet. Shocker. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 Bullshit. I basically flipped a coin and picked September as the warm one of the two months. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 A warm August would definitely be a surprise to me. A very big surprise, actually. Nothing wrong with admitting that. Mother Nature is a complicated piece of work. Indeed. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 Well, though the sea ice concentration doesn't have a huge impact in terms of radiation fluxes into the stratosphere, the state of the NAM itself begins to matter somewhat right about now in regards to the feedback process that drives the development of the wintertime PV/NAM. If we're talking about strat/PV influence, we'd prefer blocking/anticyclonic flow in the polar upper troposphere during the late summer/autumn, to slow down/reduce the coupling between the developing PV and the tropospheric circulation. If we (for whatever reason, of which there could be many) progress into a +NAM state during S/O/N, this can/will constructively feed back both kinematically and thermodynamically with the developing stratospheric PV. If the vortex can stack vertically, it can/will strengthen exponentially and unabatedly until bottom-up wave amplification can tilt/destabilize it sufficiently to either halt the strengthening it induce a self destruction (SSW/Wave2 response). So do we want to see a strong PV through the fall, or would it be a better sign to see it weaken? I'm not sure from what you said, sorry. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 For everyone already writing August's steamy obituary, there still looks to be a decent chance the last 7-10 days of the month end up relatively cool. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 I basically flipped a coin and picked September as the warm one of the two months. I believe it. Science! 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 So do we want to see a strong PV through the fall, or would it be a better sign to see it weaken? I'm not sure from what you said, sorry.Sorry, kind of rambled on there. We want a weak strat-PV early-on in a Niña, so we definitely want to see a -NAM (-AO) during S/O/N, or at least a big block (anticyclone) somewhere in the higher latitudes (whether it be within the NPAC/EPO domain, or NATL/NAO domain, doesn't matter where) to disrupt the conduit to rapid fall/early winter vortex intensification (coupling/vertical stacking). Again, it doesn't matter where the block seems up as long as it's strong enough to perturb the PV via mass/momentum transfer during those crucial developmental stages. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 I believe it. Science! There was no clear indication. One of the two months was likely to be warm. Science would not have helped. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 There was no clear indication. One of the two months was likely to be warm. Science would not have helped.Except for the large # of years that were cooler than average in both August and September. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 For everyone already writing August's steamy obituary, there still looks to be a decent chance the last 7-10 days of the month end up relatively cool. I'm a realist. At this point, it will take a very cool last 7-10 days of the month for most places to end up near normal. Given how things have gone, I'd say there's a 10% chance OLM ends up below normal, 20% normal or slightly above, 30% +1 to +2, and 80% chance of +2 to +4. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 Except for the large # of years that were cooler than average in both August and September. I did not really see that locally. And least not significantly so. Could very well be true on a regional level though. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 Sorry, kind of rambled on there. We want a weak strat-PV early-on in a Niña, so we definitely want to see a -NAM (-AO) during S/O/N, or at least a big block (anticyclone) somewhere in the higher latitudes (whether it be within the NPAC/EPO domain, or NATL/NAO domain, doesn't matter where) to disrupt the conduit to rapid fall/early winter vortex intensification (coupling/vertical stacking). Again, it doesn't matter where the block seems up as long as it's strong enough to perturb the PV via mass/momentum transfer during those crucial developmental stages. Cool. Something to keep an eye on. I still think you overvalue the AO in relation to PNW winters, but regardless, more blocking up north increases the odds across the board. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 Cool. Something to keep an eye on. I still think you overvalue the AO in relation to PNW winters, but regardless, more blocking up north increases the odds across the board. Well, I'm not saying the AO matters directly here, rather that high latitude blocking (in general) will destructively interfere with the developing stratPV, and capping the PV early is always a priority in a Niña, much more-so than a Niño. Having the block center close to the pole is also preferable for opening conduits to upward mass/momentum transfer into the vortex. Niñas with raging PVs in O/N/D rarely turn out well for the PNW lowlands. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 It looks like after today, even beloved OLM will have full blown positive anomalies. For sure after tomorrow. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 I'm a realist. At this point, it will take a very cool last 7-10 days of the month for most places to end up near normal. Given how things have gone, I'd say there's a 10% chance OLM ends up below normal, 20% normal or slightly above, 30% +1 to +2, and 80% chance of +2 to +4.Thank you Mr. Realist. I don't think I said anything that ran counter to this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 I think next week will be cooler than this week. I'm ******* brilliant. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 Thank you Mr. Realist. I don't think I said anything that ran counter to this. I also said a very warm August could fall apart earlier. Just wouldn't get your hopes up for it. Time to bet on September! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 I think next week will be cooler than this week. I'm ******* brilliant. You must have flipped a coin. Outperforms science 50% of the time. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 I also said a very warm August could fall apart earlier. Just wouldn't get your hopes up for it. Thank you for talking some sense into me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 0z seems to want to dig the Thursday/Friday shortwave a little further west. Might keep some people off the ledge. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 0z seems to want to dig the Thursday/Friday shortwave a little further west. Might keep some people off the ledge. I was just noticing that... should make for better ventilation too. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 I was just noticing that... should make for better ventilation too.Really sharpens the thermal trough, the coast could really soar. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 Thank you for talking some sense into me. Anytime. I'm here to dash unreasonable hopes, and fuel reasonable ones. Hence, September. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 00z says 90 is somewhat in question for Friday, especially in outflow spots. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 Really sharpens the thermal trough, the coast could really soar. Looks like any coolness early with the westward shift is negated later in the weekend with a more amplified ridge. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 Looks like any coolness early with the westward shift is negated later in the weekend with a more amplified ridge.Pick your poison... 0z takes the top edge off but definitely protracts thing. At face value Sunday could be the hottest day. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 Anytime. I'm here to dash unreasonable hopes, and fuel reasonable ones. Hence, September.Stop being an a**. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 Stop being an a**. Aw. I hope you're not serious. I'm not. You might feel like I'm goading you, but that's really not my intent. Look at my posts. I don't go after one person. I'm not here to beat anyone up. Sometimes I make light of absurdity. This forum has it in spades. You, me, Tim, Phil, Dewey, everyone. Anomalies, obsessions, preferences, model riding - it's all fair game. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 That run is hilarious. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 Aw. I hope you're not serious. I'm not. You might feel like I'm goading you, but that's really not my intent. Look at my posts. I don't go after one person. I'm not here to beat anyone up. Sometimes I make light of absurdity. This forum has it in spades. You, me, Tim, Phil, Dewey, everyone. Anomalies, obsessions, preferences - it's all fair game.Eh, I made a post about the last week of the month looking like it had the potential to run a bit cooler and you jumped at the opportunity to frame yourself as a pillar of reason, when in fact my statement really wasn't all that unreasonable. It is what it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 That run is hilarious. I think it's a real a**. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 Eh, I made a post about the last week of the month looking like it had the potential to run a bit cooler and you jumped at the opportunity to frame yourself as a pillar of reason, when in fact my statement really wasn't all that unreasonable. It is what it is. Not much. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 Not much.Don't you have some weather in Colorado to track? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 00Z Canadian is much farther east with the initial trough and looks like previous runs with a cool down early next week,. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 Don't you have some weather in Colorado to track?Not much. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 00Z Canadian is much farther east with the initial trough and looks like previous runs with a cool down early next week,.NAM is similar to the GFS. It'd be interesting to see that scenario play out. Really unusual scenario this early. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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