August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

That's the one thing I dislike about living in the PNW, we never experience the humidity you guys do on the East. I'm all for making the heat index go up in the Summer.

 

[Jesse]

Becoming pretty convinced he's a troll.

[FroYoBro]

Becoming pretty convinced he's a troll.

Nah. Just a little different.

[Jesse]

The clearest way to get your message across is to diss someone in front of everybody and you did just that Jesse. This will be my last post ever on this forum. It was great talking to everybody about weather. I wish you all the best. Maybe I'm just sensitive but I'm crying right now and I don't want to feel this way ever again.

[Jesse]

Models definitely made the switch overnight toward more bullish with another heatwave late next week, and less bullish with a meaningful cool down to follow.

 

12z Euro ensembles still looked somewhat promising, at least.

[Jesse]

Had a some great Perseid viewing near Mt. Adams (NW of Trout Lake) last night. Rates of at least a couple a minute.

[TT-SEA]

Next weekend starting to look very warm.

[Jesse]

It appears we are now beginning to pay for our very pleasant first 2/3 of the summer, overall.

 

Was really hoping we could avoid this kind of thing this year.

[Deweydog]

It appears we are now beginning to pay for our very pleasant first 2/3 of the summer, overall.

 

Was really hoping we could avoid this kind of thing this year.

Retrogression reconsideration depression?

[Jesse]

Retrogression reconsideration depression?

 

Just my druthers. Enjoy your very favoritest type of weather. A lot of it on the way it appears.

[Deweydog]

Just my druthers. Enjoy your very favoritest type of weather. A lot of it on the way it appears.

2-3 more days in the 90's.

 

Crippling.

[Jesse]

2-3 more days in the 90's.

 

Crippling.

 

Looks like a pretty long-lived warm pattern.

[TT-SEA]

Lots of marine layer days though.

[Deweydog]

Looks like a pretty long-lived warm pattern.

Maybe, maybe not. Wouldn't be hard for something to slide in late in the weekend as the pattern deamplifies.

 

It's summer.

[Deweydog]

Lots of marine layer days though.

If only I could read a sounding...

[Phil]

The mood in here swings with every model cycle. Gonna be some frayed nerves with this one, even more so than with the late July retrogression.

 

Just FWIW, the forcing out of the WPAC has a history of leading to catastrophic short range modeling fails, given the longitude of the corresponding WAF field(s). Most likely will be another one of those "fails" later this month.

[Deweydog]

The mood in here swings with every model cycle. Gonna be some frayed nerves with this one, even more so than with the late July retrogression.

 

Just FWIW, the forcing out of the WPAC has a history of leading to catastrophic short range modeling fails, given the longitude of the corresponding WAF field(s). Most likely will be another one of those "fails" later this month.

Now who sounds like they're trying to fly above the fray?

[Deweydog]

Despite the heat, today was a big day at PDX as the 82/59 average cracked. Less than five months until we start climbing back toward it.

[BLI snowman]

Despite the heat, today was a big day at PDX as the 82/59 average cracked. Less than five months until we start climbing back toward it.

And only twelve months until it happens again!

[Deweydog]

And only twelve months until it happens again!

Sheeeew. Time flies.

[ShawniganLake]

Impressive lightning surrounding Watch Lake currently. 20-30 visible strikes per minute here right now

[Phil]

Now who sounds like they're trying to fly above the fray?

Touché, but at least I don't try to reputation-build off it 24/7..

[TT-SEA]

Run of the mill +12 at SEA today. Nothing compared to our cold departure days.

[Deweydog]

Touché, but at least I don't try to reputation-build off it 24/7..

Yeeeeeeeeeah, you kinda do.

 

Must be a marine layer thing...

[Deweydog]

Canadian is coolerish for late in the week.

[Jesse]

Canadian is coolerish for late in the week.

 

The saga continues.

[Phil]

Yeeeeeeeeeah, you kinda do.

 

Must be a marine layer thing...

So transparent. Would've expected better than "I'm rubber you're glue" from our coveted lawyer, but whatever.

[Deweydog]

The saga continues.

Hopefully people are journaling about this as to create a record for generations to come.

[Deweydog]

So transparent. Would've expected better than "I'm rubber you're glue" from our coveted lawyer, but whatever.

I think transparency is a good thing be it here, the mountains of western Maryland or the suburbs of Stampede Pass.

[Jesse]

Hopefully people are journaling about this as to create a record for generations to come.

Wayyyyyyyyy ahead of you...

[Deweydog]

Wayyyyyyyyy ahead of you...

Are you using a feather quill pen?

[Jesse]

Are you using a feather quill pen?

 

Written in dim candlelight only.

[TT-SEA]

SEA is at +0.6 for the month now. WFO SEA is also at +0.6 and Bellingham is at +1.3

 

OLM is at -0.8

 

So the same phenomenon is occurring in August where the stations in the Puget Sound region are warmer than places to the south. I am assuming places like Victoria and Vancouver BC are also warmer than normal.

 

Different month... different pattern... same result in Western WA.

[MossMan]

Was a lovely morning but the marine influenced air has just arrived. Sad times.

[Phil]

I think transparency is a good thing be it here, the mountains of western Maryland or the suburbs of Stampede Pass.

Lol.

[Phil]

Persistent westerly ZW anomalies around 90E w/ easterly ZW anomalies along/E of the dateline. LowFreq convergent maximum is around 150E, as is typical of Niña, but once off equator, things get quite hairy.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

[Timmy Supercell]

Why is that? November owns March out here as far as winter weather potential, while the opposite is true east of the Rockies.

 

For some reason in November I average less snow in Klamath Falls than in March, even though November is more capable of cold/arctic events.

[Jesse]

For some reason in November I average less snow in Klamath Falls than in March, even though November is more capable of cold/arctic events.

 

Getting cold onshore flow is more common in March, which would favor your area.

 

November cold events are probably generally more moisture starved over there. Just shooting from the hip here.

[Timmy Supercell]

Getting cold onshore flow is more common in March, which would favor your area.

 

November cold events are probably generally more moisture starved over there. Just shooting from the hip here.

 

Going from experience last 5 years here, November certainly is a far drier month out of the two.

[MossMan]

Marine crisis over...back to sunny and warm currently.