I haven't talked about ENSO at all and responded to another person's post about the Nina numbers with a couple maps just to back up what they said.
Side note... we often do even better with cold neutral.
I think all the models are in agreement that it will weaken significantly prior to landfall. The problem is it takes storm surge a while to catch up to wind speed, like we saw during Katrina.
I wouldn't say that. Last strong Nina was 2010-11. Lots of blocking with that one. Before that you had 2007-08, which didn't have great blocking but had a ton of snow anywhere above 1000' in the PNW.
2020-2021 was upper end moderate and had its moments, certainly not a terrible winter most places.