Though luckily it matters less in +QBO winters (for a number of acronym-laden reasons). Though it is still a player.
If we were going into a -QBO this winter, I would be calling for a nationwide dud like 1980/81. Thankfully that is not the case.
Yes, but it’s the same spatiotemporal effect w/rt tropical forcing.
My point is the augmented SW-ridge isn’t a statistical indicator for winter because it’s a reflection of the forcings (ENSO/QBO) we already know *are* indicators. There is no new information here.
There are some similarities to 1999/00 in terms of the IO sector of the IPWP and solar maximum conditions.
However, that was a second year niña with an unusual subtropical/off-equator profile.