I had to turn on the heat today. RIP mid May to early Oct.

Octobers with < 2” of rain in Olympia: 2006, 2002, 1993, 1987, 1983, 1980, 1978, 1974, 1972, 1964, 1952. Useless. Good winters in 06/07, 83/84, 78/79, 72/73. Bad winters in 02/03, 87/88, 80/81, 74/75. Haven’t looked at 93/94, 64/65, 52/53. But there is no predictive value regardless.

That’s because the PDO covaries w/ ENSO/IPWP on a lag. If you calculate years where PDO/ENSO are out of phase during boreal autumn (e.g. 2023/24(-/+), 2016/17(+/-) 2012/13(-/+), 2009/10(-/+), 1995/96(+/-), 1983/84(+/-), etc, the correlation to both 500mb patterns and temps/precip over the lower-48 vanishes completely.

So are you when you post stuff about Trump, but never say a single negative thing about what Biden/Harris say However 25 years ago when I was a kid, the country was more religious, more patriotic and pretty much everyone thought socialism was a bad idea. Today more than 50% of Biden voters have a positive view of socialism and people who are like most of the country was 25 years ago are considered to be far-right nut jobs.

@Front Ranger I decided to calculate the statistical significance between October precipitation and DJF average temperature in Olympia, WA, using pearson’s correlation coefficient. Result: essentially no relationship. Actually a very weak negative relationship with no statistical significance. data used: https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?wa6114 calculator: https://www.statskingdom.com/correlation-calculator.html