My analog blend called for a mean trough for the month of November in the northwest with ridging in the east and on net in the midwest/plains as well. After the cooler weather this week, that does look to be the way we are headed. It had a reversal for December as a ridge builds into AK off the west coast dumping the cold into the upper plains. At least for now, the very extended EPS seems to be suggesting that, but there is typically little accuracy at this range. At least the EPS long range snow increases here heading into Dec as well.

Overall the pattern will be characterized by moist southwesterly flow with good shear and diffluence aloft. It'll persist for several days. EPS mean is 4" here, with totals mostly in the 3-5" range. I'd assume this is an overestimation in a general sense, but definitely possible if we get a few rounds of storms to track over the area. Many rounds of storms will pass through the southern and central plains, with each model looking a bit different, so confidence is low in the details and we need to get a bit closer to see what we are really working with.

Here are the SPC outlooks for day 4-5 showing the severe risk as the upper level shear gets cranking. Then WPC outlooks showing marginal to slight risk of excessive rain for multiple days in the area.

1.33" at my place yesterday. Severe weather was confined well to the west and northeast of me. Felt cool out there at 51F this morning, but that's more a symptom of how warm its been since that is still above normal

I will take a look at the weather history for Halloween. At Grand Rapids the average high/low for Halloween is 54/38. The record high of 79 was set in 1950, it has reached 70 or better in 10 years, the last time was in 1981. The coldest maximum of 32 was set in 1917. There have been 5 years when the high did not reach 40 the last time was in 1996. There have been 7 years with a high of 40 the last time was 1995. 1917 was the year that seen the most snow fall at Grand Rapids when 1.5” fell, 0.4” fell 100 years later in 2017 that was the last time it snowed on the 31st The record low of 20 was set in 1988. As that would be the morning low The low on November 1st was 36 so it may not have been that bad for trick or treating. A low of 21 was recorded in 1976 on November 1st so that was a cold night of trick or treating. The wettest was 1.27” of rain in 1994 and there was 1.21” of rain in 2013.