2008 had more weeping and gnashing of teeth than an episode of the Love Boat filmed on the River Styx. Until are retrogression arrived of course. We may just have to wait a little bit.

Technically 1/31/1950 is the 28490th warmest day on record for KSEA.

Yes. Reminiscent of some of our worst warm ENSO winters, but this is not warm ENSO. A full 180 reversal is actually pretty likely at some point. I hate what we are currently in with a passion though.

I think the reason for the GFS runs getting better is it keeps the MJO wave going whereas the ECMWF shows it collapsing after it enters octant 5. I've seen the ECMWF be too eager to collapse MJO waves before so there might be hope.

Classic retrogression signal from day 10 onwards as the ridge retrogrades up into Alaska. This will be our easiest path towards an Arctic Blast with this pattern. The GFS is probably a little too quick with the retrogression as I believe the ridge overhead will stay put for a bit longer than what the GFS shows but make no mistake about it, it will retrograde. As I mentioned before, I’m looking around mid December for this to occur.