Both the GFS and ECMWF are in solid agreement that it takes aim at southern Oregon and northern California. It will be plenty wet elsewhere, but any real flooding concerns should remain well to the south.

Pretty impressive to see that on the satellite picture like that. Probably starts to hit us late tonight. Any idea if that firehose lifts north or south and when? Could be some serious flooding.

6:45 am IR/Water Vapor. Atmospheric river inbound. Now that's a moisture plume!

Buckle up...it will get very wild for some on here: (7:04 says where the harsh winter will be)

If this progression occurred at Day 7-10 and not 13-16 maybe we would be getting somewhere as the main trough shifts back towards Siberia and ridge as well axis is west of ~140 W. The pattern has to flip at some point. This won't continue all winter. 12z GFS in 1 hour