GFS has been rock solid.

NEW DATA! Yesterday KC looked to just have a few snowflakes or snow showers, data this morning shows we're in it and 1-3 inches look likely. Snow on top of snow, nothing better. Schools are closed for the 4th day and now a 5th day looks likely.

By 9:45 we should have more clarity... that is when the 12Z ECMWF will be done running. If it is still showing an arctic blast then I think the odds go up significantly.

I sure hope we see some snow cover in Iowa, northern Illinois and Wisconsin, the farm land is bare and it's been extremely dry and cold, this spring is going to be a dust bowl. This pattern is going to make a lot of problems in the spring if we don't break out of it. Hopefully GFS cools off for the 18th because it's got rain for me. It would be pretty disappointing to get snow to the south followed by a three weeks of dry followed by rain.

I know these AI models are supposed to be better, but I just haven't seen enough to trust them yet. This would be ridiculous.