Down to 77…no more 80s for awhile! Warmest day on my 10 day forecast IMBY is just 67…also 18z euro. Wetter than the GFS and GEM.

It's not skewed by anything. If Nino 3.4 was +0.6, it's x0.6 weight. If Nino 3.4 was +3.0, it's 3.0x weight. If Nino 3.4 was -2.0, it's -2.0x weight. Also, Nino 1+2 is currently +2.6. Here is June-July of Nino 1+2: It's following the ENSO script about as closely as it can imo

Olympics on fire.

That's pretty skewed by 2015 and 2023, though. If you look at all Nino summers since 1950 where ONI peaked +1 or higher during the warm season, the picture outside of 2023 and 2015 is pretty different. So it just comes down to if you think any analogs before 2015 are completely irrelevant.

It has a +0.3 correlation for Portland. And +0.35 for Seattle. That's pretty high - higher than anywhere else in the US. JJAS ONI in 2020 was -0.45 (almost Weak Nina). JJAS 2019 was +0.25, so together your two analogs are net negative Nino 3.4.