Some more from today. In and around north capitol hill

True, but I would bet good money that we see the PDO flip by winter. Kind of what happened in 1957 and to a lesser extent 1972. If you want to weight PDO as the dominant factor outside ENSO, then 1972-73 is easily best match...but I'm not sure that's a good idea. As awesome as a Dec 1972 redux would be for the West. FWIW, 1982 actually had -PDO for much of the May-July period.

It’s coming.

N. Pacific pattern has been nothing like those years. July will be 6th straight month of -PNA. I know PDO is secondary to air, but it does run high correlation. Both 82-83 and 97-98 were big +PDO.

Have to think 1997-98 and 1982-83 are the best overall analogs, given ENSO strength and QBO. 2015-16 is also a good QBO match, but that was a second year Nino and this year looks much stronger.