I don’t doubt this summer will be brutal for much of the nation. The hope I have is that the heat is focused further east and we can enjoy at least some marine influence.

Summer of 2011 was the last truly nice summer we had. The September heatwave was pretty brutal, but we’ve had a lot worse in September over the past decade. 2012 was decent too. At least through July. By recent standards I could certainly live with the august/September combo we got that year.

And I’m not even factoring climate change/etc into it. The state of tropical forcing/internal variability itself favors heat, heat, and more heat this summer (and probably autumn too). Literally nothing worse than niña onset, downwelling +QBO (westerly shear stress) -PMM/+AMM, +IOD/+DMI, going into solar max. It’s going to be ugly everywhere except Alaska. But I’m sure this post will be forgotten when I inevitably make another mistake on the subseasonal level and take a beating for it. Haha.

Next week has one decent front. Not sure what all the hype is about. It used to happen fairly regularly in June.

best part about this weather pattern is it should stay cool and damp up until about August 1st then we dry out for 4 weeks warming into the low 80s with clear skies before getting the fall storms again starting mid September.