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I'm just impressed that you were able to fight off the space bar urge through all of that!

I would say our summers are pretty reliable until about September 25th. Using NOWData calendar day summaries, our probability of seeing 80 degrees is at summer levels (32%) as late as 9/23. Only three days in June have a higher 80 degree probability @ PDX.

Can't really make a direct analogy to winter like that. Falls are short around here and springs are long. Mid February is well past our climatological peak of winter, whereas mid August is just barely past the peak of summer.

The QBO is something I'm not really extremely knowledgeable about. I don't know many who are, honestly. My take has been that blocking should increase throughout the next 20 months. The QBO reversal has directly contributed to the breakdown of the nearly 2 year pattern that we were stuck in. This began to change noticeably around April so I do not believe it is merely coincidence.

Thats what i love to see as i check in on this lovely 65° bonfire evening in mid Aug!

I'm definitely not calling out 1976 as a forecast for anything long range. Just has had the look at 500mb for a good while. The troughing in the central US is actually much stronger at this point than the exact same period from '76. Years I'm looking into based on a number of things right now.. 1967, 1976, 1985, 1988, 1999, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2013, and 2014. A few more years from early 1900s but there's where I'm at right now.

Interesting, just read this from a met on Twitter: Of note, the ECMWF seasonal is showing a -AO as well as the ridge in the west. Something to ponder on.

Me too man. A week in Alaska is like #1 or #2 on my list.

I think there's more to it than that. Something about the longwave pattern preferentially setting up a ridge around the 20th-24th of the month over the preceding (and following) several days, given the typical hemispheric forcings present during the boreal transition to fall. PDX has hit 85 degrees just 5 times on 9/19...but 16 times on both 9/21 and 9/22. 90 degree readings have occurred just two times each on the 18th and 19th...but 9 times on the 22nd.

Happy birthday!

Just looking at

I once spent a summer in Alaska, so I can attest to that. The onset of darkness at night was very noticeable after August 1st. I had arrived on June 20th and didn't see a proper night until right before I left on August 8th.

I can see farther horizons now. Smoke is gradually lifting. Nice to see cooler temps today too. At 80 currently.

Just because someone is stating the obvious, doesn't mean they're insulting your intelligence. It's a lesson I'm still learning myself.

I'm familiar with it. Kind of insulting my intelligence there.

We all know that. It was just extra entertaining coming from the guy we all also know can't wait for fall to arrive.

132 days until the days start getting longer. #euroANDgfsinstrongagreementonthis

Lol, well maybe from a decadal averaging standpoint they'll run warmer, but colder western autumns can happen in spite of the expanded IPWP. The dice are just loaded in favor of warmer autumns (and cooler springs).

I read this as: torchy falls for the rest of my life.

We're carving pumpkins and watching game six of the WS this evening. #fallisback!

Same here

It's an optimistic take on astronomy.

12z Euro must be pagan.

I just figured. Whenever I hear the term "WPAC forcing" it means we are either torching or are going to torch. I understand very little else from your posts, but I've at least learned that much. For the record, it's been since 2013 since we have failed to see a record warm month in the August-November period, so for whatever reason we have been torching in this time frame every year despite what have likely been a multitude of factors playing into it each year.

Looks more east-based to me this year, though. The entire IPWP convective engine is shifted N/W, out of the E-IO/W-Indo and into the WPAC/E-Indo area, and even the off-equator WPAC. This versus last year's 120E exhaust pipe and -IOD cell.

Well, so much for el nino watch. Subsurface is cooling and most areas are near 0 anomaly right now, but trending downwards. Looks like a negative neutral is most likely, with a small chance of weak la nina developing.

Appreciate your informative contributions [i.e. Koppen/ Trewartha climate classification].

According to some pagan beliefs it's already Fall (as of Lughnasadh, the cross-quarters day in early August).

Starting to look like groundhog day around here. Every day is the same. Lol.

Yeah. Lots of rain. Surprisingly the ground is still absorbing it pretty well.

It will snow somewhere in September. #eclipseeffectsnowfall

The thing is, you're gonna drive yourself crazy over the fact I might not be.

Haven't read all posts, but does this look like a fire-season ending rain? BC? Washington? Anywhere in Oregon?

Around the 20th thru Labor Day weekend is when I think it gets above normal around here. It may be cut short if the fronts make an appearance sooner. Hope not, bc I'd love to have a great long weekend. By Sept, I'm sorta ready for Autumn to kick in. Throw in some delightful days in the 70's and sun along with cool to colder days and I'll be content.

Can't wait until fall.

Aren't moderators expected to do the opposite of logging on just to start ?

More like 2000+ post argument.