Money Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 And you and the front end and maybe more than thatLooks like it nails my area on the front end Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 Looks like it nails my area on the front endYa i got the free weatherbell trial. Â you get a foot at least on the 10:1 map it looks like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 0z runs tonight: NAM: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017022200/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png GFS: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017022200/114/snku_acc.us_mw.png GEM: http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017022200/114/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 Ukie is coming in south....  HR 48: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif HR 72: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 2 foot lolipop in S MN. Crazy how much things can change in a couple hour drive Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 NAM/GEM/GFS all have the low reaching northern IA around HR 72 while Ukie keeps it in the SE part of the state. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steblow Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 tip of the cap to the NAM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steblow Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 NAM/GEM/GFS all have the low reaching northern IA around HR 72 while Ukie keeps it in the SE part of the state.  4-8 for you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 4-8 for you? Who knows. Depends on the front end part of the system. NAM has temps at 33 while GFS/GEM are in the 30-32 range. Switch over to rain and a few inches on the backside. Interested to see what Dr. No says tonight and GFS ensembles... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 Still a lot of GEM ensembles that are farther SE. The mean has the low in north central IL http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2017022200_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@moy_072.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steblow Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 Who knows. Depends on the front end part of the system. NAM has temps at 33 while GFS/GEM are in the 30-32 range. Switch over to rain and a few inches on the backside. Interested to see what Dr. No says tonight and GFS ensembles...  this is a tough one for sure.. its been fun though... feels like the old times again... I just need to darn know real soon whats sorta happening... if its only going to be 6" im not going up... now if its the potential for a foot plus with a good likelyhood im hitting the road by thursday AM.  You are searching hard for a se trend lol... when we need it its not there... dont want it its there... its boinked me the last 3 yrs. Euro will be interesting for sure... if it goes America than we know these shenanigans might be legit.. and then there is occlusion.,..shakes head... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 Hopefully the UKIE can score a coup.... Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 this is a tough one for sure.. its been fun though... feels like the old times again... I just need to darn know real soon whats sorta happening... if its only going to be 6" im not going up... now if its the potential for a foot plus with a good likelyhood im hitting the road by thursday AM.  You are searching hard for a se trend... when we need it its not there... dont want it its there... its boinked me the last 3 yrs. Best part of winter is tracking storms. Ups and downs of model watching. You win some and you lose some. This might be the last one of the year tho so I'm pushing hard for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steblow Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 Best part of winter is tracking storms. Ups and downs of model watching. You win some and you lose some. This might be the last one of the year tho so I'm pushing hard for it.  yeah youve never pushed this hard before... lol.. you bang models hard..nothing has changed with you there.. but your new attitude.. claps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 yeah youve never pushed this hard before... lol.. you bang models hard..nothing has changed with you there.. but your new attitude.. clapsLol.... GEFS has something for everyone.  Wont clear anything up 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 Lol.... GEFS has something for everyone.  Wont clear anything up Yeah. Looks like the mean is less in the max areas and shifted it south a bit. Some hard cutters, some south like the Ukie etc  Pretty significant shift south with the mean tho from 12z to 0z. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steblow Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 Yeah. Looks like the mean is less in the max areas and shifted it south a bit. Some hard cutters, some south like the Ukie etc   how come you didnt like Grizzcoats post about here is to hoping the Ukie is right.. you need to pull out all the right tricks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 how come you didnt like Grizzcoats post about here is to hoping the Ukie is right.. you need to pull out all the right tricks idk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 how come you didnt like Grizzcoats post about here is to hoping the Ukie is right.. you need to pull out all the right tricksThrow out a congrats MKE....  Wasnt congrats fargo the line that was always used during the couple winters where the NW trend always happened Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 I remember that winter. Literally everything trended NW at the last second. Like every storm no matter what. You could always count on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 I remember that winter. Literally everything trended NW at the last second. Like every storm no matter what. You could always count on it.I think there was a model upgrade that helped in those regards 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steblow Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 Throw out a congrats MKE....  Wasnt congrats fargo the line that was always used during the couple winters where the NW trend always happened 2007/08 trended everything NW in to my backyard in mke.   Madison was the hot spot to be during that NW trend era GHD Blizzard was the ultimate NW Trend.. It will never be topped for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steblow Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 not many left invested in this one. Me/MSP vs Saints/Money If i didn't need an excuse to go back up north i could care less about this storm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 Yeah, not a lot of fun when there's no one around who cares. Euro is farther south with the low through 42 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 South/weaker and colder. Good hit for gosaints and here as well (on the front end)Â Â 991 MB L in N. MO at HR 60Â Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 Weaker with QPF as well tho 2-3 for MSP1-2 for NW WI12+ for gosaints6 ish for GB Good hit for Northern Nebraska, southern/eastern MN up towards central WI with 10-14+  Low tracks from Northern MO/Southern IA to NW IL and then towards Milwaukee. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 Tomorrow's 12z runs are a big set. Should have the storm on shore and sampled. Hopefully that leads to a better consensus at the very least. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steblow Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 could tell at 48 it wasnt going to get it done... well that just muds my pants up more...se trend haunts me on. probably need to be loking at that lead turd to see how far it lets the low dig before ejecting... seems its been more fav this set of runs for those not wanting congrats team ME/MSP.   I'm overtired and rambling. Good night Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 could tell at 48 it wasnt going to get it done... well that just muds my pants up more...se trend haunts me on. probably need to be loking in at that lead turd to see how far it lets the low dig before ejecting... seems its been more fav this set of runs for those not wanting congrats team ME/MSP.   I'm overtired and rambling. Good night Yup. GB mentioned it in their AFD yesterday that the wave tomorrow will determine where this goes. Also said it's a complex setup and changes were likely to happen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 Pick a side my friends, it appears we have one hell of a showdown going on here. Obviously I like the GFS/NAM because they bury me, but the Euro is hell bent on this track and has been pretty consistent.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 ecmwfued_rapid-null--usnc-84-C-frozentot10k_white.png Do you have the freezing rain map by any chance? Thanks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steblow Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 almost looks like the nam/gfs snow maps                                       Good night all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 Do you have the freezing rain map by any chance? Thanks.I do not. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 Is Euro been holding steady unlike GFS? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 RPM model keeps it mostly snow for MN and rain/snow line creeps up towards GRB in WI....parts of IA do well also... Meantime, 06z GFS...ticked SE slightly with the snow in MN/WI  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 Nice lolipop out by Sioux City Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 Nice carve out around NE IA. Geez Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 06z GEFS mean precip...that's a lot of juice in NW IA/S/C MN and WI... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017022206/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_15.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 06z GEFS High Rez mean...GoSaints/MSP near the epicenter...dang, that is a sharp cut off on the southern end... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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