February 23rd-25th Winter Storm Potential

[St Paul Storm]

Gonna be a long 2 days of model watching. Extrapolating the NW ticks over the last 2 days, by Thursday we'll be congratulating Fargo.

 

18z NAM follows the trend.

[Tom]

Took a tick NW this run from previous...more contradiction 

[St Paul Storm]

MPX already has heavy snow and 3-5" in the grids on Thursday evening, and snow through Friday evening. They just jinxed it. Winter Storm Watch coming out soon.

 

"harsh reality of snow, wind, and colder air to the region beginning

Thursday night and lasting through Friday. Would not be surprised if

a few locations see over a foot of snow. Right now have a swath of 8

to 10 inches, but reality will probably be more narrow with higher

totals.

 

It was 60 degrees at MSP this afternoon, and in 60 hours it will be

snowing. That in itself makes this system pretty awesome for lack

of better words. "

[Tom]

18z GFS coming in a touch south and has convective banding in MN

[Tom]

Defo band pivots so slowly that it dumps snow in MN/N WI...

[gosaints]

Close enough to keep me watching

[Tom]

On this run it takes the SLP 15-18hrs to track thru IA as it starts occluding into WI...

[Tom]

Long duration event for MN/WI as it snows for 30+ hours...

[Tom]

Here was the 12z GEFS High-rez mean...

 

 

[james1976]

Sucks that every storm has to track through IA

[Money]

Will probably waive the flag on 0z runs. 

 

GFS gets really close here, but NW trend is the way to go.

[NEJeremy]

18Z GFS has a lot of precip for here(basically 1.0" of qpf). Too bad it's too god D**n warm for anything more than 1/2" of snow and the rest is rain. The newly sprung flowers will enjoy the precip at least.

[Bellona]

Yeah, unless this changes real quick I'm calling this a no go for me in Waterloo. *le sigh*

[Money]

GFS ensembles took a decent shift south of 12z.

 

gosaints gets crushed on most of them.

[Tom]

RPM model hits S/C MN hard and MSP region as well as N WI...

[james1976]

DMX leaning "heavily" toward Euro

[St Paul Storm]

I miss Skilling and the RPM. The only tv met I ever watched religiously.

[Tom]

I miss Skilling and the RPM. The only tv met I ever watched religiously.

I've been to many areas around the states but nothing compares to his broadcasts.  He's The highest paid met in the country.

 

$1M/yr salary ain't to shabby and a 12 person staff...

 

 

http://www.adweek.com/tvspy/wgns-tom-skilling-signs-10-year-contract-renewal/63262

 

 

Meantime, RPM spits out 15" for MSP....

[Tom]

I miss Skilling and the RPM. The only tv met I ever watched religiously.

I think you may be in the...shall I say..."Blizzard" criteria????

[gosaints]

GFS ensembles took a decent shift south of 12z.

 

gosaints gets crushed on most of them.

I think the best I can hope for is a euro.like solution... Still 54 hours to go

[BrianJK]

Long duration event for MN/WI as it snows for 30+ hours...

 

Does that ever really pan out though?  I know around here it hardly ever does.  Models will show 24-36+ hours of continuous snow but then significant lulls always seem to develop as the event unfolds.

[St Paul Storm]

I've been to many areas around the states but nothing compares to his broadcasts.  He's The highest paid met in the country.

 

$1M/yr salary ain't to shabby and a 12 person staff...

 

 

http://www.adweek.com/tvspy/wgns-tom-skilling-signs-10-year-contract-renewal/63262

 

 

Meantime, RPM spits out 15" for MSP....

My wife used to work for the Tribune and I met Tom in the WGN TV studios about 8 years ago. One of the nicest guys you'll ever meet.

 

If (and a huge IF) that 15" verified, it would be the 11th largest single snowfall at MSP dating back to 1871.

[Tom]

Does that ever really pan out though? I know around here it hardly ever does. Models will show 24-36+ hours of continuous snow but then significant lulls always seem to develop as the event unfolds.

Agree, but it will depend how juiced up this system ends up getting and when it starts to occlude.

[Tom]

My wife used to work for the Tribune and I met Tom in the WGN TV studios about 8 years ago. One of the nicest guys you'll ever meet.

 

If (and a huge IF) that 15" verified, it would be the 11th largest single snowfall at MSP dating back to 1871.

As we watch the 00z NAM and GFS battle it out tonight, there will be another battle brewing in MSP....Hawks vs Wild!

[St Paul Storm]

As we watch the 00z NAM and GFS battle it out tonight, there will be another battle brewing in MSP....Hawks vs Wild!

No doubt! I wanna see pound town on the models and on the ice.

[bud2380]

[gosaints]

Nam north thru 48

[gosaints]

And a little slower. Warm and wet here looks like

[Money]

bowme and St. Paul will like the NAM

 

Spitting out 8 inches of snow in 3 hours up near MSP 

[gosaints]

bowme and St. Paul will like the NAM

 

Spitting out 8 inches of snow in 3 hours up near MSP

 

Ya msp pukes snow rain just south of there. Duluth rakes

[Money]

Ya msp pukes snow rain just south of there. Duluth rakes

 

yeah looks like heaviest totals are actually NW of MSP this run.

 

ND gonna score?

[gosaints]

yeah looks like heaviest totals are actually NW of MSP this run.

 

ND gonna score?

Impressive dryslot... Most of wisconsin...

[Money]

Have to love 33 and rain which is what the NAM shows here for when the heaviest precip moves in:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017022200/051/sfct.us_mw.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017022200/051/refcmp_ptype.us_mw.png

[St Paul Storm]

bowme and St. Paul will like the NAM

 

Spitting out 8 inches of snow in 3 hours up near MSP

 

Up up and away. Now I gotta worry about thermals and more NW shifts. Man nothing is easy this winter.

[gosaints]

Fat lady very warm here. Want to see gfs first as I never buy the nam until another model shows the same.

[Money]

0z NAM:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017022200/075/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[gosaints]

Havent seen a nw trend like this for awhile. Though teleconnections, lack of snowcover, and the precedent warm airmass screamed for it in this case.

[St Paul Storm]

Weren't some of the models late last week showing this storm pounding the Dakotas and N MN? Seems like they had it right from the start.

[gosaints]

Weren't some of the models late last week showing this storm pounding the Dakotas and N MN? Seems like they had it right from the start b

One thing I will say for the nam in regards to location is even if it gets the track of the low right at this range ofteb the precip shield if off by alot. Wouldnt mattet here for me but could have a large effect for you

[bud2380]

Nam now runs the low to around mason city , IA. That's a huge NW shift this late in the game