February 23rd-25th Winter Storm Potential

[Stormgeek]

12z GFS shifting SE believe it or not over last 4 tuns slightly...

Been noticing that as well... This always seems to happen, at least in my area. The model will give a different solution a couple days out and then go back to previous solution as the event nears. It has fooled me before, but I didn't bite this time

[Tom]

S MN crushed and north side of MSP is riding the edge...

 

E NE even gets close to advisory snows...

[Money]

Correcting back SE?

 

Temps by gosaints are 4-5 degrees colder this run compared to 6z. Nearly looks like RGEM.

[Steblow]

pretty much locked in now..  we toss nam.. gfs is meh obv for nw wi..  i guess its all about saints and sneaking MSP in.

 

This one is over for jackpot in far nw wi.. if no jack or 12+ im not going.. ill wait and see maybe they will get some with this and then with some luck maybe within the next week they will add on a few times and ill go up later next week..  regardless been a good one to track.. frustrating.. no reason this shouldnt cut but in this POS winter  expect the opposite of what's good for you to happen.

[gosaints]

Correcting back SE?

 

Temps by gosaints are 4-5 degrees colder this run compared to 6z. Nearly looks like RGEM.

nice

[Steblow]

Looks like Fondu is borderline...

 

 

fondue party is the only party going down in fondy..  its over.. you can will all you want outside some slop its over.  better than nothing tho.. and just maybe you can sneak in to a nice advisory.. i seen crazier things happen... im always worried about a se trend... its the enemy for me now for yrs.. payback for the late 2000's

[Money]

GEM keeps the low south of the WI/IL boarder.

 

Goes from MO/IA to north-central IL and tracks near Chicago. 

[Tom]

pretty much locked in now..  we toss nam.. gfs is meh obv for nw wi..  i guess its all about saints and sneaking MSP in.

 

This one is over for jackpot in far nw wi.. if no jack or 12+ im not going.. ill wait and see maybe they will get some with this and then with some luck maybe within the next week they will add on a few times and ill go up later next week..  regardless been a good one to track.. frustrating.. no reason this shouldnt cut but in this POS winter  expect the opposite of what's good for you to happen.

Still liking Castle Rock Lake up towards GRB for highest amounts or just north of there...

[Tom]

12z GFS close up in NE...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017022212/072/snku_acc.us_c.png

[Money]

I'll take my .4 inch of fzr and run with it...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017022212/072/zr_acc.us_mw.png

[Tom]

Western Lakes...

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017022212/072/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Steblow]

Still liking Castle Rock Lake up towards GRB for highest amounts or just north of there...

 

 

and yesterday afternoon it was congrats fargo thinking by some. 

 

wish money could be in the money... im not driving north of greenbay or castle...  I'll wait.. until next yr now probably lol

[Money]

Decent shift south here of the last 3 runs:

 

0z:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017022200/090/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

6z:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017022206/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

12z:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017022212/078/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[james1976]

Common for it to wobble but im surprised it isnt staying NW

[james1976]

Warning snows not far from me.

[St Paul Storm]

Just catching up on the models since 0z. So I went to bed last night dreading this thing flying away to the NW and now this morning we're congratulating gosaints again. NAM is off its rocker being that far north that's all I know.

[Money]

GEM gets the 6 inch snow line down towards Milwaukee.

 

Crushes it here in the front end.

 

Another shift south from 0z last night 

[Stormgeek]

Decent shift south here of the last 3 runs:

 

0z:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017022200/090/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

6z:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017022206/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

12z:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017022212/078/snku_acc.us_mw.png

Extrapolate this 1 more run and I won't get anything! Poor forecasters at MSP must be going nuts trying to forecast the northern extent of their coverage area.

[Steblow]

not  really any gains on the south edge for your snow.. better than all rain.. no power would be fun and ice storm

 

anyways.. im out until tonight.. have a good one... after Mr No im going to be back on team occlude as far south as possible

[gosaints]

Extrapolate this 1 more run and I won't get anything! Poor forecasters at MSP must be going nuts trying to forecast the northern extent of their coverage area.

I think you will do fine

[St Paul Storm]

Extrapolate this 1 more run and I won't get anything! Poor forecasters at MSP must be going nuts trying to forecast the northern extent of their coverage area.

Yeah they put a lot of stock into the models NW shifts last night apparently to expand the watch to the north. You and I will get our 2-4" and run with it.

[gosaints]

Kuchera map for the GGEM will be interesting

[Money]

Kuchera map for the GGEM will be interesting

 

Brings mixing down to bowme's place:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017022212/048/prateptype.us_mw.png

[gosaints]

It warms after 48 though

[Money]

It warms after 48 though

 

Yeah, we're going to eventually switch over here, but the front end thump has a lot of precip with it so it could get interesting if it's cold enough. 

[Money]

Looks like 5-7 inches of snow on the front end, followed by dry slot/rain and then another 2-4 on the backside of the system on GEM for here.

 

Parts of eastern IA go from nothing to like 6-7 inches:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017022212/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Money]

Quite the spread 48 hours away from the event...

[St Paul Storm]

Still so much to get figured out within the next 36 hours. Just crazy.

[Money]

I mean...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017022212/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

vs

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017022212/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Jaycee]

Looks like 5-7 inches of snow on the front end, followed by dry slot/rain and then another 2-4 on the backside of the system on GEM for here.

 

Parts of eastern IA go from nothing to like 6-7 inches:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017022212/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

Don't get dragged into this don't get dragged into this

[Money]

Parts of E. SD go from 3 feet of snow on NAM to less than an inch on the other models. Crazy.

[NEJeremy]

12z GFS close up in NE...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017022212/072/snku_acc.us_c.png

So close to warning level snows here now. I'd love to be at my parents though again. They're in Yankton, SD right on the border with Nebraska in SE SD. They had 13" from that last storm a couple of weeks ago and it looks like they'll do that again

[St Paul Storm]

I'd love to see the underdog NAM score the coup.

[james1976]

GGEM with 16 for me. Lol come on

[Money]

UKIE:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

[james1976]

How much stock u guys put in GGEM this close to event?

[Money]

Pretty identical to GFS. Maybe a hair slower/south but then it really wraps once it crosses LM:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

[Money]

How much stock u guys put in GGEM this close to event?

 

meh not much. RGEM is the one to watch this close but it's probably just outside it's good range. 

[St Paul Storm]

Any thoughts on the cause of the SE trend today (less the NAM)? Just that it's now sampled by the network or maybe the system to the north?

[james1976]

meh not much. RGEM is the one to watch this close but it's probably just outside it's good range.

Yeah it always seems amped