February 23rd-25th Winter Storm Potential

[Money]

It does look like Ukie has some good wrap around snows as it deepens though 

 

Precip at HR 72:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

[St Paul Storm]

How much stock u guys put in GGEM this close to event?

Uh oh...don't do it James. Save yourself you still have time.

[james1976]

Uh oh...don't do it James. Save yourself you still have time.

Dont worry im not expecting 12+ like its showing lol

[Money]

Any thoughts on the cause of the SE trend today (less the NAM)? Just that it's now sampled by the network or maybe the system to the north?

 

Def. could be the system to the north pulling in colder air. It also looks like the NAM does something funky in the next 18 hours.

 

Look where it has the low at HR 21:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017022212/021/sfcwind_mslp.conus.png

 

 

All the other models are much weaker when it's developing and farther south 

[james1976]

Although GGEM has been staying south and not bouncing around like NAM n GFS

[Money]

Another good shift SE on the GFS Ensemble mean snowfall map. 

[Money]

JMA is south as well (seems like a trend so far)

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2017022212/jma_z500_mslp_us_3.png

 

Previous run:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2017022112/jma_z500_mslp_us_4.png

[james1976]

My guess is Euro stays put. Been pretty consistent.

[Tom]

12z GEFS mean snow map shifted SE...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefs/2017022212/090/snod.conus.png

[gosaints]

My guess is Euro stays put. Been pretty consistent.

Last nights EURO was very similar to todays GFS FWIW

[Jaycee]

NEJeremy and Gabel23, you guys are riding the line with this thing now. I'm going to be in Omaha this weekend so I hope the EURO moves SE. If it does then OAX is going to flip.

[Money]

12z GEFS mean snow map shifted SE...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefs/2017022212/090/snod.conus.png

 

 

Mean looks like the ukie:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefs/2017022212/060/sfcwind_mslp.conus.png

[james1976]

Last nights EURO was very similar to todays GFS FWIW

But its always been in the south camp right?

[Money]

NAM is gonna score a huge one or be way off. I usually think it would do well in this setup because like gosaints said this screamed NW (lack of snowcover, warm temps prior etc) but who knows what affect the storm going through right now has and how much cold air it can bring down with it 

[gosaints]

But its always been in the south camp right?

yes

[james1976]

When is full sampling? 0z tonight?

[St Paul Storm]

If you look at the SE trend the last 4 or 5 runs on the GFS there really hasn't been a significant change in the amount of cold air dragged down by today's system. I don't recall which office it was, but one of them talked about how the cold air wouldn't be quick to filter south, and how the models seemed to be too quick with it. But, I guess this system shows just how fickle weather is. Even the smallest change can have major implications.

[gimmesnow]

I'm sorry guys, I'm rooting for this thing to come south. We've been getting a screw job since the grinch storm in the mad/mke area. I've got three weeks of snowboarding riding on this thing coming south and east.

[james1976]

If you look at the SE trend the last 4 or 5 runs on the GFS there really hasn't been a significant change in the amount of cold air dragged down by today's system. I don't recall which office it was, but one of them talked about how the cold air wouldn't be quick to filter south, and how the models seemed to be too quick with it. But, I guess this system shows just how fickle weather is. Even the smallest change can have major implications.

DMX said it will be a quick transition from rain to snow

[WBadgersW]

I'm sorry guys, I'm rooting for this thing to come south. We've been getting a screw job since the grinch storm in the mad/mke area. I've got three weeks of snowboarding riding on this thing coming south and east.

Haha we can only hope, but lets be real, we are going to get rain.

[St Paul Storm]

DMS said it willbe a quick transition grom rain to snow

Yeah I agree with that. But the strength and speed in which today's system drags down cold air determines where the baroclinic zone sets up, and where the heavy snow on Friday falls. I'm just noting that the GFS hasn't shown much change in that yet it continues the SE trend. Meh it's complex. Just trying to make sense of it somehow.

 

Euro time....

[Grizzcoat]

Loving the S trends. GFS/GEM now has my county in warning snows. The Ukie from last night may have indeed scored a coup!!!_

[Tony]

If it was December this would be our storm. You guys have been hogging all the storms this winter so remember next winter it's our turn!!

[Money]

Euro colder so far through 24...

[St Paul Storm]

997mb way up on the central CO/WY border at hr 24 compared to SE CO on the last few runs. Noise or something else?

[Money]

997mb way up on the central CO/WY border at hr 24 compared to SE CO on the last few runs. Noise or something else?

 

It's farther south through 30 

[gosaints]

997mb way up on the central CO/WY border at hr 24 compared to SE CO on the last few runs. Noise or something else?

991 hour 30 southeast colorado

[Tom]

997mb way up on the central CO/WY border at hr 24 compared to SE CO on the last few runs. Noise or something else?

It likes to hang back energy and probably a slower ejection...

[Tom]

Euro south thru 48 and now most of N IA seems like it will snow and OMA!  Money looks good to....

[gosaints]

LOL.  Cold SOuth

[Money]

Euro south thru 48 and now most of N IA seems like it will snow and OMA!  Money looks good to....

 

Looks identical to the RGEM at HR 48 

[Tom]

Looks like it is tracking right thru N IL...

[gosaints]

nebraska should enjoy this run

[gosaints]

Rides the Iowa Missouri Border

[Money]

32 line down near Milwaukee at HR 48

[Tom]

Might break the 1" streak around here if it wraps around some snow...

[WBadgersW]

How is the Euro for the West Bend area?

[Tom]

Very strong back side winds into E NE/NW IA...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017022212/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_3.png

[St Paul Storm]

The writing is on the wall. SE MN winner.

[james1976]

The writing is on the wall. SE MN winner.

2 days to go