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February 23rd-25th Winter Storm Potential


Tom

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LSE leaning towards a more northern path but says the system on Wed. will determine where this goes:

 

While there may be decent agreement between the ECMWF and the
operational GFS, there remains a huge amount of spread in the GFS
ensembles on both the QPF and snow amounts, with the biggest
spread in the snowfall amounts. This is likely indicative of the
spread in the surface low track and the location of the warm air.
The system on Wednesday will play into how far south the
baroclinic zone moves, but concerned that it may ooze south more
than surge to the south and that there is a lot of anonymously
warm air that has to be displaced in a short period of time.
Definitely a system that bears watching but way too early to
determine what the impacts will be for the local area.

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Point forecast changed for me on Thursday night and Friday to rain/snow mix vs all snow it had earlier, however in this afternoon's updated forecast discussion from Omaha it says there could be a stripe of 6+" of snow along and north of I-80.

 

It is possible that somewhere in NE to IA, there will be a band of 6+-inch snowfall
amounts. Right now, that risk looks highest along and north of I-80.

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Point forecast changed for me on Thursday night and Friday to rain/snow mix vs all snow it had earlier, however in this afternoon's updated forecast discussion from Omaha it says there could be a stripe of 6+" of snow along and north of I-80.

 

It is possible that somewhere in NE to IA, there will be a band of 6+-inch snowfall

amounts. Right now, that risk looks highest along and north of I-80.

 

I'm confused by this. Are there 2 storms we're tracking in this time-frame? Initial wave gives us pretty much nothing.

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I'm confused by this. Are there 2 storms we're tracking in this time-frame? Initial wave gives us pretty much nothing.

They're talking about the Thursday night/Friday system. I'm surprised they said down to I-80 and north of there. I guess they are giving room for any shift, but right now I think it's going to be up near Norfolk and east of there that gets the most snow from this first storm. There is another wave on Sunday that looks to drop a few inches over most of eastern Nebraska.

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They're talking about the Thursday night/Friday system. I'm surprised they said down to I-80 and north of there. I guess they are giving room for any shift, but right now I think it's going to be up near Norfolk and east of there that gets the most snow from this first storm. There is another wave on Sunday that looks to drop a few inches over most of eastern Nebraska.

 

I just want to make sure I'm not getting my hopes up, but the models are saying that the half an inch of rain we're supposed to get in SE Wisconsin on Thursday might actually be snow? Or is my desperation for snow clouding my judgment?

 

That half an inch will be the end of Alpine Valley, but if it's actual snow they'll probably make it into mid March. Super important storm for me, and probably Alpine Valley. It seems like every holiday weekend when they'd have really good business, it would rain or be awful and hardly anyone would show up. All the resorts down here are having a super bad year and they need the rain in the forecast to turn to snow, badly.

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I just want to make sure I'm not getting my hopes up, but the models are saying that the half an inch of rain we're supposed to get in SE Wisconsin on Thursday might actually be snow? Or is my desperation for snow clouding my judgment?

 

That half an inch will be the end of Alpine Valley, but if it's actual snow they'll probably make it into mid March. Super important storm for me, and probably Alpine Valley. It seems like every holiday weekend when they'd have really good business, it would rain or be awful and hardly anyone would show up. All the resorts down here are having a super bad year and they need the rain in the forecast to turn to snow, badly.

 

they better be able to blow snow to make it in to march

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St Paul Storm- Plenty of love for you on the individual ensembles as well

I just took a peak. Yeah there are a few nice hits. Nice to see the general NW ticks today on the GFS and it's a little more comforting that the mean ensemble is closer to the GFS op run. I'm still on the fringe though and you're still looking golden regardless of any shifts. More drama tonight and tomorrow I'm sure.

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