February 23rd-25th Winter Storm Potential

[gosaints]

Why didn't you post any of the other para runs

First time I looked at it... Still ignoring teleconnections?

[Money]

Euro gonna be strong and north compared to 0z..

[bud2380]

At 96 hours euro is north of the 00z run. Throwing in the towel here in eastern Iowa. Not gonna trend any further south. I think go saints is in prime territory

[Money]

gosaints gets crushed on the euro 

[Money]

At 96 hours euro is north of the 00z run. Throwing in the towel here in eastern Iowa. Not gonna trend any further south. I think go saints is in prime territory

 

Yeah, we need this thing to start out a lot weaker and ramp up as it heads into IL etc. Instead, GEM/Euro really strengthen it in the rockies 

[Money]

12+ for northern Iowa/eastern MN/central WI

[Money]

Overall, the EURO actually trended SE compared to 0z run with the snowfall area by a little bit. Track was from NE IA up through eastern WI (south of GB) 

[Steblow]

pretty distinct camps.  normally id ride the euro's but naso much the slam dunk choice as it used to be imho.  prob will end as a compromise of the two camps.  

 

 

I either want it really far north for NW Wisconain for a road trip storm or really south for IMBY and nothing shows the latter much.

 

Does the euro hit Bayfield/Ashland area in WI much?   Thanks!

[Steblow]

12+ for northern Iowa/eastern MN/central WI

 

So doesnt sound that good for far nw wi?   I'm sure this strom will find a way to screw a snowmobile trip to bayfield up this weekend.. and it will on my location in se wi.

[Money]

So doesnt sound that good for far nw wi?   I'm sure this strom will find a way to screw a snowmobile trip to bayfield up this weekend.. and it will s**t on my location in se wi.

 

bowme????

 

8-12 for NW WI 

[Steblow]

thanks money..inn the end nw wi will get shafted im sure..and i know se wi is game over outside some wwrap around flurries.

[bud2380]

Over 1.25" qpf for Rochester MN

[Stormgeek]

Finally something to track! Love watching the models bounce all over the place. Here's to it bouncing far enough north to hit me a county north of MSP!

[Tom]

12z EPS maintains the farthest northerly track...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017021912/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_6.png

[Money]

gosaints is gonna get buried

[GDR]

[gabel23]

That model and the EURO look good for eastern Nebraska, can someone post the EURO map when you get a chance? Thanks in advance!!

[St Paul Storm]

18z GFS is north. Gosaints locked in 5+ days out. SE MN destroyed.

[Tom]

18z GFS is north. Gosaints locked in 5+ days out. SE MN destroyed.

Defo band just pukes snow for 18-24 hours straight!

[Money]

Euro ftw?

[Money]

Man SE MN gets destroyed over the next week or so

[Snoorani]

Wish there was a HP coming down when the system arrives

[St Paul Storm]

Man SE MN gets destroyed over the next week or so

Wow I hadn't even looked past this Friday system until you mentioned that. Hell to be paid for 60s in Feb.

[james1976]

Gosaints jackzone for Winter totals?

[gosaints]

Wow I hadn't even looked past this Friday system until you mentioned that. Hell to be paid for 60s in Feb.

You are golden

[Tom]

Someone from the Plains into western Lakes will be under a glacier through mid March. This pattern is going to be wild.

[NEJeremy]

Not liking the trends today. Everything's shifted north. My feeling is we're going to just miss out here in Omaha with both systems. Will see snow with the first one I think but it's going to be a late switch or the heaviest snow will be north and east of here. I'm guessing a couple inches at best at this point.

[Snoorani]

Hope rest of us can cash in few systems in march croz time is running out

[St Paul Storm]

You are golden

I'll be clearing my driveway with a broom. You on the other hand are going need some gas powered machinery.

[gosaints]

Give it two days st paul and you will be all in

[Money]

Gfs ensembles still mix bag

 

Some like op and others that are slower and south

[WBadgersW]

Good. Either bring this North or put me in the bullseye. I dont feel like dealing with any >3" totals, I'm enjoying this weather way too much.

[Money]

The GFS Ensemble mean snowfall actually shifted south compared to 12z. 

[Snoorani]

The GFS Ensemble mean snowfall actually shifted south compared to 12z.

 

if you can could post a map for gfs ensemble mean for snowfall thanks

[gimmesnow]

The GFS Ensemble mean snowfall actually shifted south compared to 12z. 

I like where this is headed. Pretty sure I saw the higher ups at my ski hill leaving this morning and they all looked super pissed off.

[Money]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/f126.gif

[Money]

Wonder what this would mean downstream? NAM gets the northern stream system down to 988 MB up in northern WI with it pulling much colder air southward.

 

0z NAM 78:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017022000/078/refcmp_ptype.conus.png

 

18z NAM:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017021918/084/refcmp_ptype.conus.png

[Money]

GFS farther south and 2-3 mb stronger with northern stream than 18z.

[gosaints]

GFS farther south and 2-3 mb stronger with northern stream than 18z.

You havent worked this hard in a long time...

[Money]

You havent worked this hard in a long time...

 

I'm just posting trends in the models. 0z have really strengthened the northern stream which could have an impact.