Report

Appears to be a general agreement we’ll get back to troughing by day 10. So the warmup will be quite brief.

After enduring the 2013-2019 stretch I really don't like to hear that. Especially given the extra decade of warming since then. No subfreezing highs here during that time period and a bunch of missed snow opportunities. Granted there were some ideal setups that we ended up rolling duds on every single time, which is super unfortunate and admittedly rare, but a stretch even half as boring would still test my love of this climate. (However it did make Feb 2019 all the more special!)

Interestingly, most of the 3+ year niñas followed strong/super niños. This one is backwards in that respect. The only match to this progression is 1954/55 -1956/57. Super niño followed 1957/58, but uniquely, did not recoil back into La Niña afterwards. In fact, the next 13 years only saw 1 weak La Niña, with 6 El Niños in the same span.

Back in 2016 or 2017 I remember pounding the drum for a heavy La Niña cycle in the early 2020s. The intradecadal IPWP oscillations tied to the solar cycle & QBO made it relatively easy to time. Same forcings that brought it about are flipping now. Approaching solar maximum, IPWP is set to extend eastward after this El Niño for another 5-10 years.

Bleh