I think the overall correlation comes out at ~0.75, not bad. I feel like at this point, they might even be able to extend the model out a bit. Euro seasonal has been pretty good with overall H5 patterns too. But yeah, sometimes the 15-day model will pick up on a 30-40 day forecast potential.
There was a talk I attended at my last job that went in deep about low res NWP forecasting as opposed to AI forecasting and what they found that the last 5 days emerge patterns that pop out 15 days later. It was kind of weak correlation, but was used for forecasting Atlantic waves as energy moved off the Sahel. Maybe recency bias, but I feel like that can apply to us and the 500mb pattern over the Pacific.
Oh ok. In that case, “the other forum” is American Weather Forums. They have a pretty lively and well-informed tropical discussion section on there. Good place to learn about hurricanes.