Cfs Dec and Jan.

Absolutely. It’s insane that he really tried to run again. Even before the debate in June it was clear to most people that he was just not there mentally despite the media trying to cover for him. It was crazy to see him get forced out the way he did.

I’d throw a very big caution to using any AI based forecasting during a seasonal transition. You effectively have a model fighting against the mean. Graphcast had issues with Indian monsoonal patterns either going early or late.

Some it comes down to luck... the post pandemic period was bad for the entire world and would have been for Trump as well if he won in 2020. Trump could run into bad luck this time if economic forces turn against him with a cyclical recession.

They had no choice by early summer. The real mistake the Dems made was a couple years ago when Biden should have announced he wasn't running in 2024 so there could be a real primary process.