Yeah, unfortunately still seems like a 50/50 chance (or a bit higher) Tampa takes a direct hit from this cane, comparing models.
Milton is quite small but the current thinking is that it will rapidly intensity before undergoing an ERC, then grow in size and weaken some before landfall.
The cone width is based on historical track error, it doesn’t take into account the model forecasts at all. The actual margin of error with this one is maybe half that width. Tampa needs to pray for a more southward track.