Yes, the subsurface being cold and the PDO at -3 makes a la nina in 2025-26 a high probability, possibly even one that peaks in between seasons like 2021-22/2022-23. There is an outside chance of an ENSO neutral season like 1989-90, but I'm almost certain the door is shut on an el nino in 2025-26. If there was going to be one, the PDO would already be making its way towards positive territory, but it is still stuck in deep negative.