Couple woolly bears I saw yesterday at Multnomah Falls. What do their colors say about the upcoming winter? Lol.

If you go about six miles east of Hobart on SE 208th Street, there's a little neighborhood hidden in the middle of the forest at ~1650 feet elevation. I've always wondered why it's there. It's miles away from any other civilization.

Same foundational logic but different context. ITCZ/Hadley Cell were insanely wide/poleward this summer, such that African wave activity was literally tracking over the southern Sahara. Now with the seasonal transition underway (higher latitudes cooling, tropical lapse rates steepening, ITCZ retracting equatorward) it wouldn’t surprise me if we end up with a late season burst of activity. Could run well into November this year. Of course it’s a multifaceted equation and there are still failure modes, but the parameters have changed and the potential failure modes will be different.

Yeah, she could win the popular vote but not win in the states that really count. Even with her leading by 4 points in a national poll I wouldn’t be celebrating it. Trump outperforming expected polling has happened twice before and it could still happen again in a few weeks.