There was a talk I attended at my last job that went in deep about low res NWP forecasting as opposed to AI forecasting and what they found that the last 5 days emerge patterns that pop out 15 days later. It was kind of weak correlation, but was used for forecasting Atlantic waves as energy moved off the Sahel. Maybe recency bias, but I feel like that can apply to us and the 500mb pattern over the Pacific.
Oh ok. In that case, “the other forum” is American Weather Forums. They have a pretty lively and well-informed tropical discussion section on there. Good place to learn about hurricanes.
Forecasts seemed to have watered it down a bit. Hoping for a surprise and refreshing aurorasaurus.org as a last minute drive to Ross Like could be in order.