I mean earlier in the year. Interestingly NOAA hadn't backed off of the Nina prediction even in late summer. I presume they have now.
This one is really an oddball. Almost every time the subsurface gets as cold as it has been this year we get a Nina. Some people consider the MEI to be a better gauge and it is in Nina territory. I really hope this means we avoid a Nino next year since the cold water has never gotten a chance to run its course.
Especially on the Australian suite of models. -0.8C was the highest 1 month departure from average.
NOAA's models has consistently been the most aggresive for La Nina.