first wwa of the season!

In regards to the potential "Thanksgiving Storm", this looks like a Mid Atlantic storm (fast mover too). The real deal will be the much colder airmass by weeks end that could provide numerous snowshowers in S MI. LES will be rockin in some of the snowbelt areas. I think @westMJim and @tStacsh stand the best chance at seeing substantial snowfall next weekend in terms of LES. As @Tom noted previously in his post, heck, even my area can see some hvy snowshowers crossing across the state. That should be fun. Hopefully, when I get back from my Thanksgiving trip, I will find white gold otg.

..and so it begins (correctly too - with the UP getting white gold 1st, then coming south) APX Primary Forecast Concerns: Snow Accumulations Monday into Tuesday...Negatively tilted trough axis swinging through the region Monday, accompanied by potentially anomalous moisture (pwats approaching 0.75in...top end of climo for this time of year here) and some weaker stability aloft...suggests we could see a punchy little system (i.e., "over-productive" clipper system). Greatest threat for snowfall accumulations will be the eastern UP, where thermal profiles suggest it should remain mostly/all snow...and where best forcing along and north of the low/warm front should be focused. Current probabilistic guidance hinting at a decent shot of 2-4 inches of snow over the EUP through Monday night, with a sharp gradient toward the Straits....though if the system ends up tracking a bit further south than currently anticipated...this could draw the snow potential a little further south than currently expected. Less certainty in how much snow will accumulate across northern Lower (though the interior higher terrain should have the best shot at accumulations, as usual)...as it may not turn cold enough till late Monday afternoon/evening behind the low pressure/cold front associated with this system. Expecting this to transition to additional WNW/W flow lake effect Tuesday...which should also be decently punchy, noting potential inversion heights around 6-7kft...perhaps even as high as 8-10kft? Winds should be stronger with this, too, which could drag lake bands further inland. Suspect this is when better snow potential for northern Lower will occur...so if this were to verify as a snow event, not impossible that we could see at least 2-4" Monday night into Tuesday over NW Lower.

There is a bright side to the pimple on the 0z EURO parked over us: our vehicles will stay clean. Washed both our vehicles yesterday in anticipation of meteorological tedium. It was a month’s worth of road grime and brake dust that was washed off.

Another breezy but dry day today with temperatures within a couple of degrees above our normal high of around 50 degrees. We warm to above normal both tomorrow and Tuesday before the big pattern change to below normal temperatures sets in by Wednesday. Looking ahead below normal temperatures look like a good bet to close out the month and last through at least the first 10 days of December. We have a couple rain chances this week - the first one will be tomorrow night with the cold front and then again with the possible coastal storm on Thanksgiving Day.