I was looking at the old PNA data (as opposed to the new version they came up with several years ago) the other day, which is updated through 2022, and the lack of low PNA in January has been insane this century. Before that it was different of course.

The AO forecast is actually showing normal or even minus over the next couple of weeks. Isn't that the best gauge of PV strength?

GEFS is better at least

Definitely not a La Nina pattern to get this +PNA in December, although December is the weakest of the Winter months for ENSO correlation.

I think an MJO wave will be the thing that will finally move this. Yesterday the GEFS showed the current wave would remain strong and progressive and today it didn't.