That’s fine, we’re in November. If we were torching in December and January I would be nervous

Importantly, while the 12z ECMWF was not as good as the 12z GFS, it was a step in the right direction vs it's 00z run. Much less cutoff. Still a baggy trough but better. The 12z EPS reflects this improvement with a more pronounced corridor of snow vs it's 00z run.

A couple numbers from Shawnigan Lake during that winter. December and January saw a combined 106” of snow. The mean temp from Christmas through January 31st was 25.5F. The ocean was frozen over in many of the bays around here with the marinas locked in ice.

And just when the GFS and CMC start to agree, the ECMWF throws a curveball and breaks up the consolidated trough in favor of another stupid cutoff low. That really stretches out the system and leads to much less snow. Up to about day 10 though the models are in pretty decent agreement on the upper level pattern. It's all in the handling of that energy as it moves into the Western CONUS at D10 and it's subsequent downstream progression. Cut off lows have been the favorite pattern of the atmosphere for the past while and for the next week. It might be hard to break the persistence.

February 2019 up there. Down here there really isn’t a valid comparison, just decent components here and there in 2003-04, 2008, 2016-17.