I think there’s a decent chance we see a ridge overhead in early December, so it would torch at the upper levels but likely be cold at the surface. Then we wait and hope for some type of retrograde situation

Euro AI continues to show heavy snow.

The late December blast in 1968 was one of the coldest on record. Abbotsford hit -4F with a windchill bottoming out at -27F during that event.

That’s fine, we’re in November. If we were torching in December and January I would be nervous

Importantly, while the 12z ECMWF was not as good as the 12z GFS, it was a step in the right direction vs it's 00z run. Much less cutoff. Still a baggy trough but better. The 12z EPS reflects this improvement with a more pronounced corridor of snow vs it's 00z run.