Pure cope here, but... during a seasonal transition I would buy that the AI models are worse at sniffing out unusual cold (or unusual warmth) given the even lower number of examples of those extremes in their training data around that time of year. A traditional deterministic model suite is probably going to have less bias against an unusually cold and snowy pattern during the last week of Feb/first week of March, since its output is a pure deterministic calculation that doesn't have anything to do with climo. The Euro and EPS don't have a climo bias like the AIFS does.

I think 1-3” tomorrow evening through Tuesday am is definitely possible. Certainly potential Wednesday night.

Overcompensating. It's ok bud, it's 2026. You can be who you are.

I come back from a trip at 5 a.m. on Thursday. Can it be pushed out just a few hours for me? It’s interesting that both times I leave Washington, during Christmas in December and now, there’s a chance for snow. I guess I was the curse.

EPS actually moved that way in the long range but Aifs ens didn’t so it’s probably fake.