Would that imply undercutting w/ less anomalous heights to the south and west? 2013-16 were notoriously ridgy but also quite progressive and stormy at times

AIFS ens is not as ridgy as expected doesn’t look wet either.

Seems pretty clear that the damaging wind/QLCS tornado threat will be on a downtrend sometime later tonight... just not sure if it will be before or after it moves through here. The LLJ will be intensifying to around 50-60 kts later and we should remain relatively well-mixed in the low-levels through the evening with a somewhat modest amount of nocturnal cooling, so I'm going to hold with my previous stance of being cautiously optimistic about the severe threat around here.

One more round of warm weather:

Yeah, unfortunately hearing reports of fatalities there.