The CAMs are not really handling the ongoing convection well, which reduces confidence in the details regarding the severe threat later today. But there is reason for concern around here. Based on radar trends, we may get a round of storms in a little while, but it looks like I will be near the southern end of those or the southern end won't be too far south of here. Despite coming in at essentially prime time of day, there could be enough time for some atmospheric recovery later especially given the relatively strong synoptics/wind fields for this time of year. In hockey there is a term about trying to anticipate where the puck will go. In this case we're trying to anticipate where the outflow boundary will be several hours from now, and I am concerned it will be somewhere in my vicinity. If that's the case and IF there is discrete convection to take advantage of that later, then that could be a big problem. Very possible that the storm mode ends up being more of a QLCS by the time it gets here though, in which case it would have considerable damaging wind potential but also a heightened QLCS tornado risk. fwiw, here's an HRRR forecast sounding for around here later.

Operational ECMWF is so bland in the long range it almost looks like an ensemble mean. Interestingly... it shows basically no low clouds for the next 15 days other than patchy morning stuff on a few days. That would be fairly unusual for June. I remember that happened in June 2015.

Father's Day/Solstice preview on 12Z ECMWF. Not ridgy! That is some goldilocks weather right there.

ECMWF coming out now... cloud maps update first and the 12Z run shows wall-to-wall sun through day 10 at least.

BREAKING NEWS The Canadian is troughier.