Could be right. Those winters were solidly in established +PDO phases, so in that sense 1972 matches much better as I mentioned. Phil will tell you, I used to be the PDO guy around here lol. But hard to ignore the QBO part of the equation.

July will be cooler than normal for some places...

The most recent Euro run that goes out to when the GFS heats up.

Well the PDO/PNA whatever you want to call it, the N. Pacific pattern thus far has not yet coupled at all. Those years were big, dominant N. Pacific vortexes. The pattern usually doesn't correlate high until October, but I really doubt we'll see a DJFM mean of anything less than -40dm in the N. Pacific. 82-83 and 97-98 were like -100 to -150dm

New poster, don't want to violate any forum rules. An insane storm hit my neighborhood some weeks ago, did real damage. I saw spinning air -- very clearly cyclonic, and there was absolutely suction, not just blowing wind. But all other indications point to a major microburst. Have a ton of video from the security cameras. Wanting to post it here to get expert opinions on what it was, but like I said, not wanting to violate rules. Are YT links allowed? Thanks.