Like I said... Mid January was a fluke, and was immediately followed by record warmth. Late February onwards has been uncharacteristically troughy for a strong Niño, that's just a fact. But I very explicitly excluded Spring.

Congrats!

SPC has expanded enhanced risk further into C.IA for the early morning bowing line. They didn't use the "D" word but I'am thinking it will likely happen. SPC AC 240059 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Great Plains and Mid-Missouri Valley through sunrise. A swath of damaging winds with gusts from 70-90 mph is most likely across central and eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Isolated intense thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the southern Great Plains, including a few tornadoes and very large hail. ...Central to northern Great Plains... Large hail and a few tornadoes have been the primary reported hazards thus far with scattered to widespread thunderstorms from far southern ND into western NE. While the storms over the Dakotas are expected to weaken after sunset, pronounced MCS development appears probable tonight through tomorrow morning across NE into IA. The current tail-end supercell complex, just west of North Platte, should grow upscale into a bowing MCS. This will be aided by rapid strengthening of the low-level jet over KS/NE to 60-70 kts during the next few hours and a downstream plume of moderate to large buoyancy advecting quickly northward across the Mid-MO Valley. While low-level instability, especially with northern extent, should remain weak, the strong forcing for ascent and abundant MUCAPE will be favorable for a swath of severe wind gusts. Recent HRRR soundings indicate a rear-inflow jet to around 80 kts, suggesting that gusts from 70-90 mph should be anticipated as the bowing MCS matures. Have expanded level 2-3/SLGT-ENH threats farther east-northeast in IA to account for potential severe winds persisting through 12Z.

This is awesome! Congrats!