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WTF, Phil and Tim at the bottom. I figured they were neck and neck for first place, with them having their own thread and everything. Thanks for doing this Jesse.

Rankings through July (I calculated using average absolute error): New Big Mack: 0.52 Flatiron: 0.60 Jesse: 0.60 Shawnigan: 0.77 James Jones: 0.79 Justin (No DCA forecast): 0.85 Dewey: 0.88 Phil: 0.95 Tim: 1.20 Eujunga: 1.21

You said this summer would be perfect. Perfectly perfect summer perfection! You were so incredibly wrong. This weekend is unprecedentedly horrific on a human level. Shame on you.

This is analogous to folks in Miami complaining about "cold" during the winter. You have one of the nicest, most preferable summer climates in the country, even under the ULL. Be thankful.

00z Euro reduces the warm spell to two days (Thu-Fri) and puts us back into a very cool pattern by next weekend.

00z GFS watered down the ridge in the believable (5-7 day) range quite a bit.

No question the coming warm spell looks like a sharp quick hitter. I kind of like those. At this point the WRF shows impressive heat developing by Friday and then a major crash Saturday night with chilly onshore flow. It clearly shows quite cool air pooling up along the coast Friday night and Saturday waiting for the chance to spill inland Saturday night. Looks like a dynamic week with huge temperature swings.

The sad thing if any ridging occurs over the next 30 days (which there will almost certainly be some) he'll be convinced he was right about the typhoon causing it. There is no winning...

It's old news. It's like a reporter with Alzheimer's who does an expose every week on Richard Nixon and Watergate.

And hopefully a scorching September!

I'm dreaming of a cool August.... In all seriousness... If we have the same height anomalies over the GOA this winter that we've had since mid June we will have much to smile about.

69 for a high today at SEA. No chance of coming anywhere near the 62 day streak of 70+ days like we had last year.

As the Arctic region prepares its slow transition towards Autumn, the sun's angle lowering each day, it's more than likely temps will trend below freezing this week. More snows will fall over the next 10 days near Greenland and over the Arctic. http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2016.png Snows will probably stick where there is ice near the Pole and Greenland.... http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016080712/gfs_asnow_namer_41.png Greenland doing pretty good with the lack of ice melt of late...brief blip in mid July though... http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/images/greenland_melt_area_plot_tmb.png

70 for a high here. 0.02" of rain. Very fall-like tonight with temps in the low 60s, wood smoke in the air.

We went kayaking and I didn't sweat very much, otherwise I didn't much think about it. Pretty Boring, Oregon. Now if I was several states away it'd be a totally different story.

How much did you hate today, on a scale of one to Tim?

Pretty crazy day here. Clouds, sun, sprinkles. Made even crazier by the thought people may or may not be enjoying it.

Nice cool shot being advertised on both the Euro/GFS next weekend... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016080712/ecmwf_T850a_us_7.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016080712/ecmwf_T850a_us_8.png

Looks like some thunderstorms are starting to popup across the Vancouver Island range.

It's been around 5-6 degrees cooler since mid June.

August is one of the months we have been stuck in a horrible rut this century. Having a notably cool month would be a sign things have finally been shaken up.

Looking like a very interesting Sea-fair Sunday in the works. Early afternoon temps in the low 60s with a good chance of thunderstorms on the way. SEA could be looking at a max over 10 degrees below normal today. Meanwhile I'm at Ocean Shores and the weather is partly cloudy after some rain early this morning. Temps have been quite cool for the last few days.

Just for giggles, looking at SEA only, Phil's average error is 0.75, and Tim's is 0.90 For PDX, Phil's average error is 0.45 and Tim's is 1.45 In other words, Phil is beating Tim pretty handily for the two most talked about stations, as well as the overall contest.

It's been 15 hours since I've seen the sun. I just can't grip this. My coworkers were all laughing at the idea that people on an internet forum could in the summer cheer clouds, drizzle, and slightly cooler than average temperatures at an airport where they probably never even fly out from Seriously, just wait another 40 days guys! My family swears this should be the last straw and I should leave for good. No more empty promises about "next time being different" or "this place can change". Enough is enough.

Here is a list of monthly anomalies so far: June PDX: 2.5 SEA: 2.6 OLM: 1.2 EUG: 3.2 DCA: 1.0 July PDX: -0.1 SEA: 1.1 OLM: 0.3 EUG: 0.3 DCA: 2.9

So I moved to Missoula a week ago... Weirdest thing about this place is that grass is green above 4-5k' depending on slope aspect. Must be a wet summer here.

Significant cooling of the offshore SSTAs over the last week, in response to the low frequency anticyclonic tendency associated with La Niña. Actually a classic example of the PDO as a fluid-inertial reflector. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

Going to be a cool Seafair Sunday. Mid 50s now with showers already moving in west of Olympia.

Some great captures in there! Wow! I'm missing the summer storms this year!

So I did eventually bother to clip down stuff and upload a video. Around 20 minutes worth of footage cut down to 3 minutes. There was so much more lightning that didn't pick up, I guess in the daylight it's difficult for even my new cameras to capture that stuff. During the May 4th storm I used the exact same camera and it picked up dozens of flashes/bolts with relative ease.

Practice what you preach.

Can't post a map right now. About to start a poker tournament. Here's his closing statement on the QBO though. I'll try to get the map up later this afternoon. "We await the July update to see if the easterlies resumed at higher levels and will follow if so whether it will push down quickly in a more normal fashion. otherwise the easterly phase at 30mb lasted only 1 month compared to 13 months the last cycle. Easterlies are usually stronger than westerly anomalies which makes this even more unusual. Solar flux is low - currently in the 80s (this month so far is 73.9 sfu) so an easterly QBO would point colder." It's interesting because it sounds like it tried to flip but hesitated. Sounds like it should be flipping anytime. Analog years used in the model update were 1998, 1960, and 2014 as primaries. 2002 and 2003 made the list as secondary analogs with another year or 2 thrown in.