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I think you knew what you were up to. Just as the other person knew what he was up to....

I do have some epic ones. I've earned the right after watching this climate decline over the past 40 years.

Yikes, man. You're putting SilverFallsAndrew's meltdown to shame.

An extremely wet and stormy October/November would be nice. Copious amounts of rain, subtropical in nature, and tree toppling wind... 2006 was my type of fall.

And January will have 31 days. But yeah, it's the first winter in a while with any irrational expectations. Some emotional calisthenics may be in order.

That's a fairly impressive looking Jet days 8-10 on the Euro. Pretty possible we could see out first windstorm of the season next week.

2010-11 was pretty decent up here. If that January event had of come through, it would have been very good overall.

I just wish we could go through an October without getting into a putrid pattern. Not really asking too much.

Timmy is a different breed than you or I. But it is much more tolerable since he isn't an utter asshat about it.

Toaster bathing sounds dangerous.

The last couple weeks of October/first week of November 2003 was one of my favorite periods in recent history. Talk about a 500mb roller coaster...

Looking like this will be a totally wasted trough from a cold night perspective. Little clearing shown on any night while the air mass is still cold. I sure wish we could have held onto the anomalous GOA ridge for another few weeks. As Jesses has mentioned it would be nice to have an October with frosty nights and cool days just for its own sake.

You don't remember the two bitter cold snaps that winter? That's about all that was worth remembering on that one.

Maybe a little bit of both? One dovetails neatly into the other as far as I can tell. Playing the cool guy role has an even bigger payout when others become upset/sad due to their trivial, earthly weather concerns. Gives a golden opportunity for the all-important distinction to be made even sharper.

Amazingly some hurricanes in the past have had tracks like that. I imagine some people in Florida and the Bahamas are feeling a bit queasy after seeing that run.

It's ok. If a weather forum is the only place you can feel like king of the hill, might as well let you enjoy it.

When Jesse sees a snowflake!

How's the weather up above the fray?

Lots of moderate rain at my house tonight.

Weenie meltdowns galore is my prediction for this winter!

Get a room already.........

Jesse, you're really hittin the funny bone with Mark. He just did a new thread and indirectly referenced you, eerily familiar.

I got my first sub 60 high today. Cool damp day. The 18z GFS shows the northern branch digging into the northern half of WA this weekend. I hope that continues to trend cooler.

It was pouring like a tropical monsoon today in downtown Vancouver. Nice big drops of tasty rain.

Apparently took the Euro with it.

The long range operational GFS is very wet. Thank goodness!

I have plans that require heavy rain.

They are saying Thursday morning. Pretty bad timing though, with some fairly rainy systems moving through the next few days, and quite possibly this weekend too.

Radar is never coming back.

I hadn't seen this before. Didn't realize Charlie packed such a punch. This thing was heading straight for Venice where my Mom, Aunt, and Uncle were all living at the time in retirement double-wides. It took a last minute jog east. So glad too. (no, I don't want this in my 'hood, but wow! just watched it again. This is the closest I wanna get to such a storm tbh ) https://youtu.be/unV5KcSrY-I

No doubt the weekend has trended warmer and drier. Hopefully the stormier pattern next week holds. Could be a windstorm in there somewhere if the trough axis ends up in a good spot.

A month of contrasts. Lovin' the pinks in Montana and the "hot pinks" down in FL:

Really glad the Euro is still holding strong with a wet weekend. The GFS should eventually shift that way.

Interesting to note, if the modeling verifies over the next 7+ days, the stratPV will be the weakest in recorded history to open October in a -ENSO/+QBO year. Huge departure from the last several autumns, where the stratPV would go bonkers early and fully couple with/dominate the polar tropospheric circulation.

Coming to a winter near you! (not a huge fan of the bitter stuff, but we all know that's almost a requirement for serious storm potential. Without it, you get last year. Maybe 2007-08 around here is the best win-win for those that love to see storms but don't want the sub-zero lingering for days and days on end.

Yeah. I just entered them in when I had a few spare minutes and was shocked. I've been stuck on those years pretty hard since mid-August and couldn't really believe they matched so well. If they hold up again this month, which I think they will, then hardcore winter begins for all of us the last week of November. Even running 20 analog years through with what I had put December and January solidly below normal for the central US. I'm 90 percent certain in what I have for the last 2/3 of Autumn and for winter. The east coast may squeeze out one more hurricane after Matthew but after that, they're done. I just need to quit rushing things and let the next 6 weeks go by. :-)

My brother lives a half hr SE of Raleigh. Hes excited lol.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/coop/coop.html COOP data in case you didn't know where to find it. Old handwritten style saw a for all states. A good bit of dating to the 1900s or earlier depending on state and site. I've found its much better to see the numbers for each day than trying to guess what happened by a monthly chart.

Brrrrrrrrr!!!!!!!!

Here's something cool. September 2016 vs 3 analogs. September 2016 1983, 1978, and 2010 (3 top years picked around September 5th). The resemblance is quite sufficient for me. Right on track.