East/Gulf Coast Weather 2016

[Phil]

Low/mid 90s temps through at least early/mid September this year. Book it, never fails.

 

Will be back in DC starting 8/28, so expect the next heatwave to begin (or already be underway) by then!

[Phil]

Looking forward to some rain storms tomorrow in the Philadelphia area. It is also nice to see that temps are off the plateau and will start to be noticibly cooler week by week.

Looking at the pattern in the long range, I doubt the cooldown is more than 3-4 days before low/mid 90s return. That SW flow aloft under high heights on the periphery of the SE ridge is a very warm regime overall.

 

We're not going to experience any prolonged/meaningful cooling until late September or October. Climo in a developing Niña favors high temperatures into the 90s lasting through mid September at least.

[Thunder98]

Think of it as a forecaster asset. Go somewhere, you can guarantee your forecast for that area.

However, don't drag out the hair shirt just yet oh weather Swami ! Ye Old Farmers has something to add.

Throw your computer models away Phil, this little chart has ya covered !!

 

image.jpeg

 

It better be wet here this winter in California! 

[Andie]

While I don't wish harm on anyone, I would appreciate a hurricane breaking the back of this d**n heat !

It was blistering hot this afternoon. 40% chance of rain Friday...won't hold my breath.

 

Meanwhile, enjoy this moon over the new World Trade Center this month.

 

[Phil]

I have a funny little feeling about the wave about to move off Africa. Weird, can't explain why.

 

We'll see how it plays out, but there's a (slight) chance this could be the storm to snap our hurricane drought.

[Andie]

I saw a weather forecaster discussing a Low in the southern areas between Cuba and South America that will swing up and affect the Panhandle of Florida. The Gulf is very warm, so I'm wondering when we'll see a TS or hurricane deeper in the Gulf?

[UnionWX]

Guaranteed at H324

I'll gladly take this and run.

[UnionWX]

Dry month here.. similar to last year. Top 5 driest August... drought conditions are returning back, but then again, it's the East, droughts don't persists for very long here.

[Phil]

Back home today..93/72, H/I 100 as of 3pm, and a similar 91/70, H/I 96 @ DCA. In other words, nothing's changed since I left town. Expecting the 90+ temperatures to continue into mid/late September once again.

[Andie]

We're in a week of temps from 88 to 93 and scattered showers.

Today we had a strong shower with lots of lightning and thunder.

One bolt struck a bit to close for comfort but its great to see August thunderstorms!

[UnionWX]

Hottest August ever in many locales up here. Closing in on 40 90+ days.

[weatherfan2012]

Back home today..93/72, H/I 100 as of 3pm, and a similar 91/70, H/I 96 @ DCA. In other words, nothing's changed since I left town. Expecting the 90+ temperatures to continue into mid/late September once again.

a sort rest for a few days but data is strongly hinting at the rige rebuilding next week so after 3 4 day break the hot weather comes right back.

[Phil]

a sort rest for a few days but data is strongly hinting at the rige rebuilding next week so after 3 4 day break the hot weather comes right back.

Yeah, I think DCA will finish with 60+ days above 90 degrees when the warm season is all said and done.

[Phil]

Looks like Hermine might wind up delivering some much needed rainfall and breezy conditions up and down the I95 corridor. Doesn't look like it'll be exceptionally impressive by tropical standards though..maybe 40mph winds w/ 2-3" of rain.

 

Another toasty late summer day here 93/70, H/I 99.

[UnionWX]

12z EURO was a disaster for pretty much the whole subforum.

[Phil]

12z EURO was a disaster for pretty much the whole subforum.

Well, it does the hook back to the coast, then moves offshore where it really intensifies and tries to come back again but is shunted out. If it were to do a second loop, it'd be a problem..

[Phil]

Soil is parched here. Was blowing leaves with the big RedMax this afternoon and created a dust storm that engulfed the entire neighborhood.

 

Hermine might help in this regard...looks like 6-10" of rain on most guidance.

[Phil]

Beautiful lightning show with this severe warned storm to the north of me.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/C3144F78-35D3-4F67-8097-23C525362237_zpsjkjbhtxo.png

[weatherfan2012]

Some nice thunderstorms training in Baltimore Imagain it pretty loud there at the moment

[Phil]

00z GFS whiffs with Hermine. From 6"-10" of rain to desert in one run. Hope this is a fluke.

[Phil]

Yeah looks like we're gonna dustbowl it up for September.

[weatherfan2012]

Watch us all get hammered in October by a east coast hurricane lol.

[weatherfan2012]

Yeah looks like we're gonna dustbowl it up for September.

with or without out this weekend tropical system we all knew September was going to suck with heat and dry eather way everything from pattern and analogs has stated a hot september this year.I'm going to just enjoy the relative coolness of the temperature this weekend while I can as it may be a long wrait until the next cool down.

[weatherfan2012]

If the ecmwf is right snj del is going to get destroyed with coaster flooding wind what a night mare solution for them if that pans out this way.

[weatherfan2012]

That was an big time tornado signature on the radar in eastern north Carolina from one of the bands of hermine hope people took cover there.

[Phil]

Autumn fever is setting in. It's such a shame we have to go back to mid-90s weather next week.

 

A refreshing NEerly on the periphery of Hermine today. DCA currently 78/60, sustained NE @ 24mph, G37mph. Sheltered from the NE here (river ridgeline & mature woodland), so less wind IMBY. Currently 76/58, sustained 8mph, G20mph, but can hear it blowing through the treetops.

[weatherfan2012]

Very poor performance by the models with hermine really have to give Larry Cosgrove credit and due he took a lot of heat by not being sold on the hype and cautioned that the ecmwf was off from the systems entire life span.certainly not one of the ecmwf finest moments with hermine wise.

[Andie]

Any winter ideas yet?

 

Everyone check your bunions, or whatever mode of mystical forecasting you use.......

 

Mine say cold, wet, and miserable everywhere except the PNW and deep SW.

I can't say Texas and Oklahoma will get a lot of snow/ice, but I expect a good deal of cold rain.

[Phil]

Okay outside w/ low humidity..currently 93/61. Have barely even broken a sweat despite wearing long pants/sleeves and walking to classes in the sunshine.

[Phil]

94/72, HI 101 @ DCA. Currently 92/70, H/I 100 IMBY.

 

Gross.

[Phil]

Our house was just struck by lightning..scared the crap outta me!

[weatherfan2012]

The thunderstorms are training north to South they stayed to our west here but sounds like you got hammered there.

[weatherfan2012]

Our house was just struck by lightning..scared the crap outta me!

slimutarliy lighting/thunder sounds like the house about to explode when you get that type of lighting and thunder had that a few times in Augest with very close lighting strikes near the house

[Phil]

Sounded like an extremely loud pop that came from under the floor. Can't find where it struck, but we're assuming it was the house. The rest of the storm was lame, though.

[Phil]

More lightning and deep, booming thunder out there tonight.

 

Hoping for another round here. Currently 77/74 and hazy.

[Andie]

Our house was just struck by lightning..scared the crap outta me!

That had to ring your bell !

 

Two years ago we had lighting run along the power lines down our street. It sounded like fabric ripping. Creepy.

Then blew the hell out of the transformer next door.

[Phil]

My morning humidity reader says: gross

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/5C0C6FE8-F987-4722-8F06-9E2CE095FAD3_zpsfdanmjwe.jpg

[Phil]

84/75, H/I 92 as of 9AM this morning. That's more typical of July/August than mid-September. Highs should reach 95-100 degrees today east of the Blue Ridge.

[Phil]

DCA hit 98/70..nasty. Currently 81/77 as of 109AM here.

[weatherfan2012]

This July August weather in September can end at any moment what is the cause of this sift july-September summer October-december fall January-April winter or is this just part of the many cycles of climate Earth has always been going through.I know Robert Filex is a big it's a cycle beleaver which I agree with him,