2017 California/Southwest Weather Thread

[Guest happ]

Light ENE winds are continuing as mostly dry trough moves overhead this morning though a brief shower or two [brown Field/ San Diego] are being reported per Mr Marine Layer. Cooler and windy later today.

 

L: 55

[Anti Marine Layer]

Ventura and Santa Barbara Counties are already having offshore winds while further south an eddy seems to be spinning over the coastal waters. Smoke is not looking good on the satellite.

[Guest happ]

Ventura and Santa Barbara Counties are already having offshore winds while further south an eddy seems to be spinning over the coastal waters. Smoke is not looking good on the satellite.

 

They get some wicked downslope winds often referred to as sundowner in Santa Barbara. Bad news for firefighters. Whatever smoke we get down here will likely be mitigated by winds tonight. It is nice that dew points are back above 40 degrees and a slight eddy circulating in Bight. 

 

Montecito

@Joey_Buttitta

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Much cooler day today. Skies were also very hazy and there may have been some high smoke, but could not smell anything.

[Guest happ]

Coolest day since 11/2/17 the first maximum below 70F this month.

 

67/ 55

[Anti Marine Layer]

Quote from Monterey forecast discussion

 

The most common question associated with all these products is if the area has ever had a red flag warning this late into the year before. The answer is, yes, we have, but it is rather rare. Not unprecedented, but rare, which would go along with the fact we on track for one of the driestDecembers on record (per downtown San Francisco, only 1989 and 1876 were drier). 

[Dan the Weatherman]

Coolest day since 11/2/17 the first maximum below 70F this month.

 

67/ 55

 

It is finally feeling a bit more like this time of year, as opposed to these ridiculously high temperatures we have seen for so much of this fall. I am not saying that warm spells are not normal for fall, but this continuously warm pattern is definitely abnormal.

[Guest happ]

Very strong winds this morning and worse than what occurred earlier in the month when tree limbs came raining down. My anemometer isn't working but a check with other nearby stations on WU show gusts over 50mph. Lots of dust in the air.  Horrible fire conditions.

[Guest happ]

It is finally feeling a bit more like this time of year, as opposed to these ridiculously high temperatures we have seen for so much of this fall. I am not saying that warm spells are not normal for fall, but this continuously warm pattern is definitely abnormal.

 

I think/ hope the second half of the month will be cooler than it has been per long range models. It hasn't been really hot [90F] though close in some of the usual warm spots in Orange/ San Diego counties. Minimums remain well above normal; still have yet to record anything below 51°; that is abnormal.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Winds are dying down this morning after a very windy late night and early morning.

[Guest happ]

The earlier wind event reminded me of a mountain wave due to intensity/ turbulence. Heavy wooden patio furniture was rearranged on the deck, palm fronds litter the road. In Dec 2011 a mountain wave destroyed my roof, took out a huge ficus tree and many understory palms. The thought of a wildfire during these winds is unsettling.    

[Anti Marine Layer]

Phoenix got 0.16" and some thunderstorms overnight and there was a dewpoint spike from the 20s to the 50s.

 

Exact opposite here as dewpoints plummeted with the arrival of the Santa Ana Winds.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Phoenix got 0.16" and some thunderstorms overnight and there was a dewpoint spike from the 20s to the 50s.

 

Exact opposite here as dewpoints plummeted with the arrival of the Santa Ana Winds.

 

The low responsible for the t-storm activity also aided in the Santa Ana wind event. During this time of year the circulation from a surface high in the Great Basin coupled with the counterclockwise flow around a low over AZ or the 4 Corners region, can really crank up the Santa Anas due to upper support and a strong pressure gradient.

[Anti Marine Layer]

No black spots on visible satellite tonight from the Thomas Fire and no new fires started with today's strong winds. That is good news. Still gotta wonder if some of the fires that started with the original Santa Ana event were arson.

 

Pattern change may happen next weekend, but we've seen this too many times before where forecast pattern changes or storms did not happen. Kevin Martin even predicts some low elevation snow, but what we really need is an atmospheric river.

[Guest happ]

Phoenix got 0.16" and some thunderstorms overnight and there was a dewpoint spike from the 20s to the 50s.

 

Exact opposite here as dewpoints plummeted with the arrival of the Santa Ana Winds.

 

That upper low even affected southern Baja w/ water spouts reported off Cabo San Lucas.

[Guest happ]

No black spots on visible satellite tonight from the Thomas Fire and no new fires started with today's strong winds. That is good news. Still gotta wonder if some of the fires that started with the original Santa Ana event were arson.

 

Pattern change may happen next weekend, but we've seen this too many times before where forecast pattern changes or storms did not happen. Kevin Martin even predicts some low elevation snow, but what we really need is an atmospheric river.

 

The 'Skirball' fire in the Sepulveda Pass was due to a camp fire in a homeless settlement. I haven't read if arson was involved in any of the recent fires. The fires in Sonoma county/ Napa valley in October are still under investigation; electrical lines arcing in the intense wind is one explanation.   

[Guest happ]

For whatever it is worth, CPC coming on board with idea of cold air mass over the West next week. Later this week could be cooler than it has been since Feb. Maybe a stray shower perhaps.

 

72/ 53

 

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

We have gained 3 minutes of daylight in the afternoon so far with tommorow's sunset about the same as one month ago. Barely noticeable unless you go out the same time every afternoon and look at the sunshine on the buildings. One of them had some sunlight that was not there last Friday.

[Dan the Weatherman]

No black spots on visible satellite tonight from the Thomas Fire and no new fires started with today's strong winds. That is good news. Still gotta wonder if some of the fires that started with the original Santa Ana event were arson.

 

Pattern change may happen next weekend, but we've seen this too many times before where forecast pattern changes or storms did not happen. Kevin Martin even predicts some low elevation snow, but what we really need is an atmospheric river.

 

I am wondering the same thing regarding the fires, whether they were arson or not. I also wonder if any of the northern CA fires, such as the one that affected Santa Rosa was arson, because there were so many fire starts in a relatively small area.

[Guest happ]

Good news is that the ridging is breaking down enough to allow a cold front this week w/ rain/ snow over much of California north of Pt Conception. Long range for early January is also encouraging.

 

@MJVentrice

 

[Guest happ]

NWS_LA Discussion

 

"The bigger impact aside from the oddity of 
  hydrometeors falling from the sky" 

 

Cynicism?

[Guest happ]

Squeezed out the last 70° day for a while. Looking forward to clouds/ higher dew points. A shower would be even better but may easily end month totally rainless for first time since 2000 when only a trace occurred during Dec.

 

70/ 52

[Anti Marine Layer]

Once again a little bit more sunlight on the buildings in Irvine today at 4:35 PM than yesterday, but OCTA is one of the world's most pathetic bus systems there is. Today it was 10 minutes late, while yesterday it was 7 minutes late. Another day it was 3 minutes early. They have awful reviews on Yelp.

 

There always seems to be more traffic right before Christmas.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Last full day of fall looks to be the coldest day we've had so far.

[Guest happ]

Mostly clear skies/ calm winds allowed the first sub 50F minimum since May 7th. I was afraid that clouds would keep the overnight temp in the 50's. Minus winds tonight could likely provide even cooler temps but a wind advisory is in effect. In any event it will be nice having cool temps and a remote chance of a shower today.

[Thunder98]

Mostly clear skies/ calm winds allowed the first sub 50F minimum since May 7th. I was afraid that clouds would keep the overnight temp in the 50's. Minus winds tonight could likely provide even cooler temps but a wind advisory is in effect. In any event it will be nice having cool temps and a remote chance of a shower today.[/size]

The forecast high today for Santa Maria is 59F. The morning low for Friday is forecasted to be 30F. Cold

[Guest happ]

The forecast high today for Santa Maria is 59F. The morning low for Friday is forecasted to be 30F. Cold

 

Yes this is the coldest air of the season and just in time for winter. NWS is forecasting 30's even for USC on Friday but that is subject to change since the overnight met [Rorke] tends to differ from model guidance. Christmas day, on the other hand, could be warm. 

[Guest happ]

The storm is weak even for NorCal & little if any rain reports as the front passes over Monterey county. It is a chilly morning.

 

Clear/ 59.8°

[Thunder98]

Drizzly rain and breezy weather in Santa Maria.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Marine layer is deepening as the day goes on. This morning around sunrise it was mostly clear.

[Thunder98]

It’s only 55F now

[Anti Marine Layer]

It's frigid out there. Not used to such weather here. Nevertheless, it will not bring us much rain, if any.

[Anti Marine Layer]

The declination will max out at about 23.43507 S tomorrow morning. It's moving along at a snail's pace right now.

 

Time and Date
12/20/2017 5:29:00 PM

Solar Declination
23.43353 S

Minutes for Solar Declination to go .01
2926.78
 

 

 

 

[Guest happ]

Coolest max since March 5th; coolest mean since 2/27. Some reports of light rain near the bay [LAX/ Hawthorne] but dry here. NWS still predicting 30's for Friday morning so long as wind doesn't ruin it.

 

61/ 49

[Anti Marine Layer]

Measurable rain in Fullerton, but the blow drier returns tomorrow.

[Anti Marine Layer]

We are getting moderate rain here too right now.

[Anti Marine Layer]

12 hours to go.

 

Time and Date
12/20/2017 8:28:00 PM

Solar Declination
23.43408 S

Minutes for Solar Declination to go .01
3650.11

[Anti Marine Layer]

0.03" total for Fullerton. Big deal, but better than nothing. That's all for this fall since skies have cleared out.

 

Time and Date
12/20/2017 10:49:00 PM

Solar Declination
23.43443 S

Minutes for Solar Declination to go .01
4532.55

[Dan the Weatherman]

Only a trace of rain fell here in Orange, which was barely enough to wet the ground.

[Anti Marine Layer]

San Diego got 0.07" last night.

 

Just under 2 hours to go. Winter arrives at 8:28 AM.

 

Time and Date
12/21/2017 6:33:00 AM

Solar Declination
23.43504 S

Minutes for Solar Declination to go .01
22182.32