jaster220 Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Unable to see your attachments for some reason...speaking of Traverse city, I think this place will be buried this season. This year's LRC storm track thus far this season screams its going to be a good season around the GL's. Wonder if snow records will be broken this season not only for amounts, but snow cover duration. Yeah, lovely. I was trying to delete oldest page first and didn't realize after you delete one batch, it reverts to viewing your latest vs oldest. I kept clicking and deleted a whole page full of recent attachments.. (doubt I'll have time to restore 'em all tbh) Was posting on local SMI board that I truly feel good that this region (Kzoo/BC/Marshall) will see it's first Cat-5 storm (20+") in 40 yrs (you've had at least 2 in that time iirc), and that these records could/should be in play in order of descending likely-hood: _ Peak snow depth_ Seasonal total snowfall_ Greatest single-storm total snowfall_ Greatest single month total With all this warmth and up and down temps, I'm not yet comfortable putting things like longevity of snowcover, days with lows below zero or lowest mean daily temps on the table. Not ruling them out, just need to see more real-time indicators. So far I've only got Peach pits, caterpillar hairs, and Squirrel's tails to go on.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Jets look partially in sync, if not actually phased at this point: Will be fun tracking the pressures on this guy! Still two distinct centers.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 23, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Jets look partially in sync, if not actually phased at this point: 20171023 CONUS flow at 300mb.jpg Will be fun tracking the pressures on this guy! Still two distinct centers.. 20171023 CONUS MSP and wind barbs.jpgSouthern MW phase and a bombing GL's monster! The amount of precip and GOM connection is great to see. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 From GRR's AFD this morn: SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)Issued at 452 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017Have expanded the flood watch westward to encompass the entire forecastarea. The focus for the heaviest rain has shifted northwest andthere now may be a reduced threat for heavy rain along the US-127corridor around Lansing and Jackson. We will keep this area in thewatch however given uncertainty in the details. It is lookingincreasingly likely that a sizable part of the forecast area couldreceive 4-5 inches of rain, most of which will fall from thisafternoon into Tuesday morning, which could impact commutes thisevening and especially Tuesday morning. There are indicationsthat significant rainfall accumulations could continue well intothe day Tuesday, boosting totals even further.We are close enough in time to the event to utilize convection allowingmodels. Not surprisingly, they advertise much greater QPF due to betterdepiction of the impressive fgen that is too narrow to be properlyresolved by the global models. It`s looking more likely that thedeformation/fgen area will rotate over the forecast area thisevening. This will result in prolonged durations and greater coveragefor rainfall. With the rotation of the mid-level thermal gradient comesa significant Fs contribution to the mid-level frontogenesis furtherboosting upward vertical motion and precipitation rates. Atmosphericmoisture remains rather extreme for this time of year. The 00ZAPX and GRB soundings were 265 percent and 185 percent of normal,respectively. Therefore the environment supports intense rainfallrates.A peek at the 23/00Z ECMWF reveals that additional rainfall Tuesdaycould be significant particularly to the northeast in the vicinityof Mount Pleasant and Clare. In fact, these areas may end up withthe greatest totals by the middle of the week. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 RGEM with a powerhouse 980 mb cyclone tomorrow evening hammering the UP Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 As of 3 PM (EDT) I have recorded 1.29" of rain for this event. Getting a steady moderate rain here now with a temperature of 52° at this time the winds are calm. I will update from time to time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 GRR updated with some local river flooding warnings mid-day. It's pretty wild that some places already had almost 2" overnight just CF forcing focusing alone. .HYDROLOGY...Issued at 1211 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017River levels are rising across the area. Rainfall of up to twoinches has fallen through this morning and another two to threeinches are possible through Tuesday. More rain is also possiblethrough the week. Warnings have been issued for Croton on theMuskegon River, Rockford on the Rogue River, and Vicksburg on thePortage River. More river warnings could be issued depending on theamount of rain that falls and where it falls. Areal flood warningsand watches are also in effect though Tuesday. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 23, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 From GRR's AFD this morn: SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)Issued at 452 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 Have expanded the flood watch westward to encompass the entire forecastarea. The focus for the heaviest rain has shifted northwest andthere now may be a reduced threat for heavy rain along the US-127corridor around Lansing and Jackson. We will keep this area in thewatch however given uncertainty in the details. It is lookingincreasingly likely that a sizable part of the forecast area couldreceive 4-5 inches of rain, most of which will fall from thisafternoon into Tuesday morning, which could impact commutes thisevening and especially Tuesday morning. There are indicationsthat significant rainfall accumulations could continue well intothe day Tuesday, boosting totals even further. We are close enough in time to the event to utilize convection allowingmodels. Not surprisingly, they advertise much greater QPF due to betterdepiction of the impressive fgen that is too narrow to be properlyresolved by the global models. It`s looking more likely that thedeformation/fgen area will rotate over the forecast area thisevening. This will result in prolonged durations and greater coveragefor rainfall. With the rotation of the mid-level thermal gradient comesa significant Fs contribution to the mid-level frontogenesis furtherboosting upward vertical motion and precipitation rates. Atmosphericmoisture remains rather extreme for this time of year. The 00ZAPX and GRB soundings were 265 percent and 185 percent of normal,respectively. Therefore the environment supports intense rainfallrates. A peek at the 23/00Z ECMWF reveals that additional rainfall Tuesdaycould be significant particularly to the northeast in the vicinityof Mount Pleasant and Clare. In fact, these areas may end up withthe greatest totals by the middle of the week.I noticed the strong frontogenesis on radar this morning and was going to comment on that. Thanks for sharing their disco. All these details we are seeing evolve over the past 24-48 hours are great signs going forward. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 If this system does indeed wrap up with high winds in the UP here is a web cam to take a peek athttps://www.exploremunising.com/web-cams/and here is the 2nd part of the above camhttp://www.jamadots.com/webcamsat this time the skies are clear at Ontonagon with the temps in the low 60’s for a very nice day up there. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Gales of November came early! https://g.co/kgs/QAo6nF 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 This system will pull down some chilly air. Highs in the 40s and lows in the 30s for Wednesday as the low pressure area departs away. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 23, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 This system is affecting nearly everyone in this sub-forum except for the southern posters....from NE all the way into the GL's! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 23, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Very impressive wrap-around moisture being depicted by the high rez NAM with 1.0-1.5" in spots across S WI/N IL/IN... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 23, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Hey WestMJim, let us know what you experience when that intense fronto band comes onshore near GRR. That looks intense on radar! It almost looks like what a hurricane would produce along the edge of an eye wall.... http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/GRR/N0Q/GRR.N0Q.20171023.2124.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 No wind as of yet, but definitely getting heavy rain now. Picked up near .50". Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Winds are now starting to pick up a bit. Still raining,but not as hvy. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Winds are really gusting now. I am getting gusts of 30mph with 17mph sustained. Rain has pretty much lightened up. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Gales of November came early!https://g.co/kgs/QAo6nFI was just a kid when news of the missing ship feared sunk hit the TV and radio news, and I can still remember that evening. One of my all-time favorite tunes as well. When he returned to touring after the coma, I saw him in a concert near Detroit. Crowd made him play that song twice! Mich peeps love that song, it touched a lot people with a vivid portrayal of the savage conditions those sailors faced. Who makes a #5 pop hit today based on real life history? Unique circumstances that was. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Winds are really gusting now. I am getting gusts of 30mph with 17mph sustained. Rain has pretty much lightened up.Picking up here as well. Was some super heavy rain about 6 pm when the front and merging systems passed overhead Marshall. Temps dropped as winds went westerly. 998 mb closed contour just NE of me as of 17:54 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Picking up here as well. Was some super heavy rain about 6 pm when the front and merging systems passed overhead Marshall. Temps dropped as winds went westerly. 998 mb closed contour just NE of me as of 17:54Wednesday will be real chilly as temps remain in the 40s throughout the day as the low pressure area leaves and lows drop near freezing later at night. Btw: Hard freeze in the works for both of us this weekend. Lows could bottom out in the 20s. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 At Niko Now THIS has been a real autumn day across SWMI. Heavy wind driven rain with temps holding in the low 50's at work and a lot of colorful leafs flying off trees! I actually noticed piles of 'em on the shoulders of the x-way after work. Dramatic flip from the past two days. Awesome stuff for pure Mich! Can't remember ever seeing a map like this tbh. Unique system we got on our hands. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Dropped 2 mb from 6-7pm. 996 mb closed contour last update. She's taking off! Bombs-away! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 At Niko Now THIS has been a real autumn day across SWMI. Heavy wind driven rain with temps holding in the low 50's at work and a lot of colorful leafs flying off trees! I actually noticed piles of 'em on the shoulders of the x-way after work. Dramatic flip from the past two days. Awesome stuff for pure Mich! Can't remember ever seeing a map like this tbh. Unique system we got on our hands. usa_ICast (4).gifHopefully, this is the beginning of a great Winter to come. Tbh, I have a feeling by weeks end, there will be a lot of bare trees around, especially with that real shot of chilly air arriving for the weekend. Btw: can you imagine that map above was in January or February?! Oh...Boy! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 GRR pm AFD Issued at 328 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 Low pressure moving north across Lower Michigan will continue tobring heavy rain with some flooding expected through Tuesday. Thelow will deepen on Tuesday and winds will be ramping up with somestrong wind gusts Tuesday and Tuesday night. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)Issued at 328 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 Heavy rain tonight into Tuesday and high winds Tuesday intoTuesday night are the main forecast issues in the near term. The Flood Watch was replaced with areal Flood Warning across thewestern third of the forecast area and an areal Flood Advisory toits east. The southeast zones are not expected to see flooding andthe watch was dropped there. Surface low was centered just south of AZO at 330 PM and is movingnorth with strong area of f-gen expected to continue producinginch an hour rain rates across the warning area through theevening. We have been fortunate that the bulk of the heaviest rainhas remained over Lake Michigan so far today, but amounts over 2inches have occurred across parts of Ottawa, Muskegon, OceanaCounties with a report of nearly 2.25 inches near Holland at 320PM. The heavier rain is moving onshore and the HRRR has the f-genarea pivoting across our northwest zones tonight. So 3 to 5 inches of rain is possible in the warning area withamounts of an inch or less across the southeast zones by Tuesdayafternoon. The other issue we will have to deal with high winds on Tuesday asthe low rapidly deepens across northern Lower Michigan.Tightening pressure gradient and strong cold advection willcombine to bring gusts to wind advisory criteria during themorning across the northern coastal zones and by afternoon acrosscentral and southern zones. We have issued a wind advisory forthis area. The winds will subside after midnight as the low pullsaway. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 As of 9:30 PM EDT I have a event total of 2.34" at my house. The winds have now picked up and gusting to 30 MPH at this time the temperature has now dropped to 49° Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Holy crap! The house just got rocked! Where's GRR with some wind headlines?? And I'm in a very sheltered location in town. 994 mb closed contour an hour ago. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Sustain winds at 24mph with gusts at 40mph. Wicked winds out there. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 24, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Rain and wind has been pelting my sky light all night. The well forecasted wrap around bands of rain have been soaking the area through most of the night. Picked up an additional .43 so far and might get close to an 1" as these heavier bands make its way in. I couldn't help but notice the intense rain coming off of Lake Superior in the U.P. Current conditions at Marquette, MI...41F w/ heavy rain, winds N 32mph G 47mph! Nasty! http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/MQT/N0Q/MQT.N0Q.20171024.1144.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 24, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Dang, these are some impressive wave heights near Marquette! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Rain and wind has been pelting my sky light all night. The well forecasted wrap around bands of rain have been soaking the area through most of the night. Picked up an additional .43 so far and might get close to an 1" as these heavier bands make its way in. I couldn't help but notice the intense rain coming off of Lake Superior in the U.P. Current conditions at Marquette, MI...41F w/ heavy rain, winds N 32mph G 47mph! Nasty! http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/MQT/N0Q/MQT.N0Q.20171024.1144.gif Current conditions at Marquette, MI...41F w/ heavy rain, winds N 32mph G 47mph! Nasty! AKA..heavy wx! Yeah I saw that too. Imagine in winter Speaking of winter, with this trending west at the last minute it wouldn't have been an ideal situation for mby. Being that I didn't have any use for more flooding, I'm actually ok with my 1.3" total so far and my topside maintenance over the weekend seems to have paid off. Nonetheless, if it was winter I'd do this again, as I'm pretty sure there would've been more interesting outcome with cold air around. A bit non-conventional as we had gusty winds from about 6-10 pm last evening, then it went calm overnight as that lobe of LP extending south from the main center of LP has kept us back in an "eye" of sorts. That freak gust that hit my place was a parting shot from the bombing center as it took off towards Saginaw Bay. Might've been whiteout squalls in winter. Also, with cold air and this low of a baro in winter, the lake would be kicking in much more than it is with a rainer. Still, we don't get this look everyday: 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 24, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 AKA..heavy wx! Yeah I saw that too. Imagine in winter Speaking of winter, with this trending west at the last minute it wouldn't have been an ideal situation for mby. Being that I didn't have any use for more flooding, I'm actually ok with my 1.3" total so far and my topside maintenance over the weekend seems to have paid off. Nonetheless, if it was winter I'd do this again, as I'm pretty sure there would've been more interesting outcome with cold air around. A bit non-conventional as we had gusty winds from about 6-10 pm last evening, then it went calm overnight as that lobe of LP extending south from the main center of LP has kept us back in an "eye" of sorts. That freak gust that hit my place was a parting shot from the bombing center as it took off towards Saginaw Bay. Might've been whiteout squalls in winter. Also, with cold air and this low of a baro in winter, the lake would be kicking in much more than it is with a rainer. Still, we don't get this look everyday: 20171024 CONUS Vorticity and 300 mb streamlines.jpgThat's a beautiful map right there! Agree, the NW trend with this system might of upset Niko when he was looking at heavy rains just a few days ago. This storm is a good "test case" for us this season if/when we see more storms coming out of the deep south. Got a feeling this will be one of the storm tracks we will see this season. I'm already seeing a similar storm track Week 2 in November...hint, hint....after the 11/11 system but it may be a little farther east this time depending on how strong the EC ridge will be. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 24, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 AKA..heavy wx! Yeah I saw that too. Imagine in winter Speaking of winter, with this trending west at the last minute it wouldn't have been an ideal situation for mby. Being that I didn't have any use for more flooding, I'm actually ok with my 1.3" total so far and my topside maintenance over the weekend seems to have paid off. Nonetheless, if it was winter I'd do this again, as I'm pretty sure there would've been more interesting outcome with cold air around. A bit non-conventional as we had gusty winds from about 6-10 pm last evening, then it went calm overnight as that lobe of LP extending south from the main center of LP has kept us back in an "eye" of sorts. That freak gust that hit my place was a parting shot from the bombing center as it took off towards Saginaw Bay. Might've been whiteout squalls in winter. Also, with cold air and this low of a baro in winter, the lake would be kicking in much more than it is with a rainer. Still, we don't get this look everyday: 20171024 CONUS Vorticity and 300 mb streamlines.jpgBTW, what site are you using to get those msl contour maps and the one above? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 For this event I am now at 2.91” There is still light rain falling. The temperature is 47° here and the wind is calm. The official total rain fall for the month at GRR is now 7.90” this makes this the 2nd wettest October in recorded history at Grand Rapids. The record is 8.32” in 1954. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Picked up .77". Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 For this event I am now at 2.91” There is still light rain falling. The temperature is 47° here and the wind is calm. The official total rain fall for the month at GRR is now 7.90” this makes this the 2nd wettest October in recorded history at Grand Rapids. The record is 8.32” in 1954.Does your forecast calls for any snowshower activity this weekend?! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 AKA..heavy wx! Yeah I saw that too. Imagine in winter Speaking of winter, with this trending west at the last minute it wouldn't have been an ideal situation for mby. Being that I didn't have any use for more flooding, I'm actually ok with my 1.3" total so far and my topside maintenance over the weekend seems to have paid off. Nonetheless, if it was winter I'd do this again, as I'm pretty sure there would've been more interesting outcome with cold air around. A bit non-conventional as we had gusty winds from about 6-10 pm last evening, then it went calm overnight as that lobe of LP extending south from the main center of LP has kept us back in an "eye" of sorts. That freak gust that hit my place was a parting shot from the bombing center as it took off towards Saginaw Bay. Might've been whiteout squalls in winter. Also, with cold air and this low of a baro in winter, the lake would be kicking in much more than it is with a rainer. Still, we don't get this look everyday: 20171024 CONUS Vorticity and 300 mb streamlines.jpgThat is a major trough with a neg tilted closed low. Likng it! We need this for Winter when it arrives. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Does your forecast calls for any snowshower activity this weekend?!yes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 24, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Man, it's been pouring heavily out in the western burbs with this band of rain. Dekalb/Kane/McHenry counties have been the epicenter with those heavier returns over the past few hours. http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20171024.1341.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 ^^^ wonder if lake is helping you out over there somehow?? 6z NAM wanted to go sub-980 mb! Pouring here now at work, can hear it on the roof.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 24, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 ^^^ wonder if lake is helping you out over there somehow?? 6z NAM wanted to go sub-980 mb! Pouring here now at work, can hear it on the roof.. 20171024 6z 6hr NAM 32km precip,MSLP for Oct 24.pngYou can see the lake is having a little influence, it would be better if there was a more stronger NE flow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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