El Niño and La Niña multi-year events more common?

[weatherfan2012]

What interesting is sort term El nino has a warming effect long term El nino system has a cooling tendency.Same with La nina sort term it has a leveling off cooling effect but long term in a La nina system it tends to go along with warming cycles climate as oppose to cooling cycles.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

On 9/28/2023 at 8:58 AM, AquariusRadar said:

Some improvement in the upper Mississippi valley. Drought in SE New Mexico and SW Mississippi intensifies. Some severe drought shows up in Oregon.

 

Not worried about drought here anymore. Our summers have been insane the past 3 years, but this is our 3rd wet winter in a row with decent snow pack. An extreme blessing in a strong Nino winter. 

Edited March 27 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Andie]

Gulf coast looking very dry.  
Doesn’t bode well for crops.  

…..Outlook for Texas?

[AquariusRadar]

The weekly drought map shows no dramatic changes. But more and more, little by little, the upper regions of our biggest rivers are showing  very dry or some drought. The Mississippi, Snake, Missouri, Colorado, and Rio Grande are all, at least, very dry. Your'e right Andie. Not looking good for a hot summer ahead. The Ohio, Tennessee, and other larger rivers of the Southeast are currently free of dry conditions. But these rivers lack a snow pack source and will be subject to rapid drying as the summer heat comes on. The Sacramento and west coast rivers are ok..with more moisture expected this spring and backed up by good snowpack.  

[Andie]

We haven’t received much rain through the winter.  
It really needs to rain.  

¿Cuándo va a llover?!!!  

[weatherfan2012]

On 3/28/2024 at 3:58 PM, Andie said:

We haven’t received much rain through the winter.  
It really needs to rain.  

¿Cuándo va a llover?!!!  

this was a strange El nino Alot of research I think will be look at it but my bet is the pacific had a play with a over all La nina background state which may have interruped the normal El nino tendaceys.

[Iceresistance]

2 hours ago, weatherfan2012 said:

this was a strange El nino Alot of research I think will be look at it but my bet is the pacific had a play with a over all La nina background state which may have interruped the normal El nino tendaceys.

-PDO messed it up

[Andie]

Well, …it sucked.  

[AquariusRadar]

Drought map unchanged this week.

 

[AquariusRadar]

No major change in the drought map. A small area of extreme drought in Western Montana has cleared.

[AquariusRadar]

The tiny areas of extreme drought in upper Idaho and Montana have returned. The extreme area in Iowa has decreased. The drought areas of the Kansas and Oklahoma (very dry) and desert Southwest are expanding to merge in the Texas panhandle. If that trend continues, there will be a continuous line of drought that extends from the boot heel of New Mexico to the upper Great Lakes.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Multi-year la nina events are more common, but not multi-year el nino events. It comes down to the fact that it's easier to sustain a la nina event than an el nino. It's very rare to have consecutive el nino years. Before 2014-15 and 2015-16 (and possibly 2018-19 and 2019-20), the last time we had back-to-back el nino years was 1986-87 and 1987-88.

[AquariusRadar]

Not much change in the drought conditions. A little less of the intense drought in Iowa but Iowa and Kansas are mostly in some level of drought. The southwest drought continues.

[AquariusRadar]

No changes to the drought map. April showers bring May flowers? April should have done better. Dry months ahead for the Midwest corn belt. The Southwest monsoon hopefully will start early. 

[Andie]

Go back to the first post and play the photos like a “video”.  
You can see the development and shrinking of the drought.  The drought has changed a good deal. Interesting to watch it. 

[AquariusRadar]

Yes, interesting to see the growth then the shrinkage. I am thinking the spring rains should have done more for Kansas. Looks thin for a wheat harvest. But the largest portion of the corn belt is looking ok and rains continue there. Iowa now only the NE corner in peril. More rain expected there. Dry continues from east Arizona to west Texas. New Mexico in serious fire danger.

[AquariusRadar]

Only a small part of NE Iowa remains in serious drought. The rest of the corn belt ok- for now. Hot weather coming. Kansas and the OK/Tex panhandles now engulfed by the dry. Red winter wheat (bread wheat) not loooking to good. El Nino not yet over- the South continues very (record) wet. Idaho and  Montana dry and the NW snowpack below normal. The SW continues in drought- extreme in south New Mexico.

[AquariusRadar]

Drought map essentially unchanged.

[AquariusRadar]

Drought continues in New Mexico and far west Texas. The south west is dry. The corn belt is now free of drought. The upper Mississippi is almost free of drought. Wheat country in the Texas panhandle and Kansas still under serious drought.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

On 4/1/2024 at 5:30 PM, Iceresistance said:

-PDO messed it up

If you really think about it, with the exception of the 2014-16 El Nino, we've been in an extended -PDO pattern since the 1997-98 El Nino disspated: 

[AquariusRadar]

An area of drought has crept up in south Florida including the Everglades. That wasn't anticipated, at least by me, in El Niño year as almost all of the southeast gets a soaking. Montana and Idaho drought continues. Mountain fires anticipated there later in the summer. West Texas drought expanded into the Laredo area of the Rio Grande. No change in Kansas or the southwest. This week marked the end of the parade of west to east storms along the Gulf Coast. Maybe El Niño is fading to the ENSO neutral?  

[AquariusRadar]

The dryness in Montana expands. The drought areas noted last week in south Florida remain on this week's map but should be much deminished on the next weeks map as torrential rain has inundated much of the area. Drought in the soutwest remains strong. Summer monsoon is approaching and will dampen the deserts. Kansas remains in the grip of a devastating drought.

[AquariusRadar]

The serious drought has cleared in south Florida after some record rain and serious flooding. The drought in south Texas will find relief with the next weeks map as tropical storm Alberto is dumping lots of rain. Some coastal flooding. The corn belt is clear; just some dry areas remain. Kansas remains very dry with spotty drought. Montana dry is expanding some. New Mexico remians in drought.

[AquariusRadar]

Drier conditions are expanding along the eastern seaboard. Drought remains unchanged in the West.

[AquariusRadar]

The extreme dry of the Eastern Seaboard continues to expand. Virginia, the Carolinas, and Georgia will be threatened by the ongoing heat of summer. The Montana drought lingers on and some areas experiancing extreme drought.

[Andie]

More recent model computations are showing growing confidence of a further northern track as Beryl cuts across a more northern stripe of the Yucatan, suggesting higher odds of a landfall along the Texas coast.

"If it were to take the right-hand track somewhere up into central Texas, maybe even affecting at least the southern part of the metro Houston area, it's likely to be a stronger hurricane because it has more time over the water and also take longer to get there," Norcross said. "So the certainty based on what we know from the computers is this is a Texas event because the bad weather is on the right side (of the storm)."

[AquariusRadar]

The drought areas of the eastern seaboard continues to grow. A small patch of extreme drought at the Carolinas border. The western droughts remain much the same. Beryl doesn't seem to have had a big impact on the dry areas. 

[AquariusRadar]

Surprisingly, extreme drought has pop up in Northern Virginia and few scattered locations in the Tennessee Valley. The western Montana drought now has a small patch of extreme conditions. Dry areas consume all of Oregon and seems to be expanding in norther California and Nevada. Overall the Northwest is very dry.

[Andie]

Alabama/Tennessee appear to have intensified as well.   
Have you seen any drought projections for the Midwest down to Texas?  
So far we’ve seen some showers in No Tx and hope for more.  

[AquariusRadar]

The NWS precipitation 10 day says the Tennessee Valley is predicted to get some good rains. Texas not so much.

A new but small area of exceptional drought is noted in western Montana. With the execption of the Mississippi, almost all of the headwaters of our major rivers are dry or in drought. The eastern dry expands somewhat.

[AquariusRadar]

Not much change in the map.

[StormchaserChuck1]

Nino 4 has a consistency year to year, but the other ENSO regions don't and actually have a lite opposite correlation. That could also be because of limited data (going back 75 years). 

[AquariusRadar]

Storm Debby should eliminate any dry in the Carolinas for sure. But the dry continues to expand in the West.

[AquariusRadar]

Storm Debby has completely eliminated the dry of the Piedmont of the Atlantic coast. The extreme drought of northern Virginia and Maryland also curtailed.Some expansion of drought in the Pacific NW. The wheat country in Oklahoma and Kansas continue very dry.

[AquariusRadar]

Extreme drought in West Texas and New Mexico expands. Minor expansion in Montana and a new tiny area in Wyoming.

[Andie]

North Texas is still quite dry despite a few showers.  Clouds will bubble up and move on to dissipate.  
We need an old fashioned front to come in and stall till it rains out.  Between the dry, the pollen and ragweed we are all getting cranky.   
Time for a gully washer!

[AquariusRadar]

Unfortunately, the dry cranky weather continues in Texas and in general across the country extreme cases of drought continue to emerge.

[AquariusRadar]

Slow expansion of drought and dry areas continue. New Hot spots emerge in Alabama, Oklahoma and Wyoming. Only New England remains drought free.

 

[AquariusRadar]

Continued slow expansion of dry conditions. Todays arrival on the Gulf Coast of Hurricane Florence should alleviate the dry through middle of the east Tennessee valley, southern Ohio , and West Virginia.

[Andie]

Red River Valley in Texas seems to be getting worse. 
When the h/// is it going to rain?!