1/8-1/10 Panhandle Hook

[Grizzcoat]

Here is snow depth-

[jcwxguy]

Nam coming in similar to 00z, but little less for Iowa, banding location slightly different in Nebraska 

[jcwxguy]

Overall, not quite as juiced but would still take it (more still to go in Iowa from this frame)

[jcwxguy]

Big jump east for low

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

Nam

 

[jcwxguy]

Oax going with warning entire area

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
248 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2024

IAZ043-055-056-069-NEZ015-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-
088>093-071800-
/O.EXT.KOAX.WS.W.0001.240108T1200Z-240109T1800Z/
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Thurston-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
Including the cities of David City, Lincoln, Auburn, Ashland,
Winnebago, Wisner, Milford, Plattsmouth, Mapleton, West Point,
Decatur, Lyons, Dunlap, Wahoo, Schuyler, Oakland, Harlan, Seward,
Macy, Albion, Pender, Logan, St. Edward, Columbus, La Vista,
Papillion, Missouri Valley, Omaha, Bellevue, Pawnee City, Crete,
Fairbury, Council Bluffs, Wilber, Walthill, Tecumseh, Yutan,
Stanton, Onawa, Woodbine, Fremont, Blair, Nebraska City,
Beatrice, Sterling, Table Rock, Tekamah, Falls City, and Norfolk
248 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO NOON CST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 and
  8 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph, leading to areas of
  blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest and west central Iowa and east
  central, northeast, and southeast Nebraska.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Monday to noon CST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
  will impact the commutes on Monday through Tuesday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$ 

 

[jcwxguy]

Icon and rdps coming in hot for eastern Nebraska 

[jcwxguy]

 

[jcwxguy]

[james1976]

@hawkstwelvereeling it in?

[Grizzcoat]

[jcwxguy]

[Grizzcoat]

[jcwxguy]

[Grizzcoat]

[jcwxguy]

Calling for 5-9 in warning for SD.   Probably still deciding on how much for Sioux falls area

[jcwxguy]

5 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

 

[jcwxguy]

[Grizzcoat]

[jcwxguy]

12 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

 

[jcwxguy]

Gfs coming in better for Nebraska 

[jcwxguy]

1 minute ago, jcwxguy said:

Gfs coming in better for Nebraska 

 

[jcwxguy]

[Grizzcoat]

Watch for my locale

4-6" in my grids. not including Tuesday.

[Grizzcoat]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
340 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2024

...Moderate to Heavy Snow Monday and Tuesday...

.Moderate to heavy heavy snow will spread across Iowa from very
early Monday morning and last into Tuesday. Highest accumulations
will occur across parts of southern Iowa where widespread amounts
of 6 to 10 inches or more may occur. As snow ends Tuesday
afternoon, winds will increase with gusts of 35 to 40 mph or
greater possible. This could result in a period of blowing and
drifting snow.

IAZ038-039-044>050-057>062-070>074-071745-
/O.EXA.KDMX.WS.A.0001.240108T1200Z-240110T0000Z/
Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-Boone-Story-Marshall-
Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-
Madison-Warren-Marion-
Including the cities of Grundy Center, Reinbeck, Conrad, Dike,
Wellsburg, Waterloo, Cedar Falls, Denison, Carroll, Jefferson,
Boone, Ames, Marshalltown, Tama, Toledo, Traer, Dysart,
Gladbrook, Audubon, Exira, Guthrie Center, Panora, Bayard, Casey,
Perry, Waukee, Adel, Des Moines, Newton, Grinnell, Atlantic,
Greenfield, Stuart, Adair, Fontanelle, Winterset, Earlham,
Indianola, Norwalk, Carlisle, Pella, and Knoxville
340 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8
  inches possible. Winds could gust up to around 40 mph by Tuesday
  afternoon and evening and cause periods of drifting and blowing
  snow.

* WHERE...Central Iowa.

* WHEN...From Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions will likely impact the morning and evening commutes.

[Grizzcoat]

GEFS going to be further W-NW with trowal in IA-- good sign!

[jcwxguy]

[Grizzcoat]

S- SE IA gets pummeled on GEFS-

[jcwxguy]

[Grizzcoat]

OMX talking convection and near blizzard---

This forecast update will increase storm-total QPF and resultant
snowfall accumulations areawide. These increases are likely due
to CAM inputs which are now being incorporated into the broader
model blend. Inspection of latest model data lends some support
to the QPF increase with a signal for a convectively unstable
environment developing across at least southeast NE Monday
morning, which would enhance snow rates. That is consistent
with the 00z HREF which indicates 60+% probabilities for 1"/hr
snow rates from late Monday morning into mid afternoon over
portions of southeast and east-central NE.

Given the model consistency in the handling of the storm system
and continued uptick in expected snowfall, forecaster
confidence has increased to the point where the Winter Storm
Watch has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. The warning
will begin at midnight for a part of northeast Nebraska near the
SD border where the initial snow is expected to develop.
Elsewhere, the warning will begin at 6 AM Monday when snow will
rapidly spread north out of KS. It now appears that the snow
and areas of blowing and drifting snow could linger into Tuesday
morning, so the warning has been set to expire at noon Tuesday.
The exception is the northeast NE segment of the warning, which
will expire at 6 AM Tuesday.

In regard to snowfall amounts, the official forecast will
indicate a 25th-75th percentile range of generally 4" to 9",
which is relatively close to the 07z NBM range, but on the low
side of the WPC SuperEnsemble distribution, especially south of
I-80. The potential for blowing and drifting snow and possible
near-blizzard conditions will increase Monday night into
Tuesday morning as winds switch to the north at 15 to 25 mph
with gusts of 35 to 40 mph. That is consistent with the
probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index which indicates the
moderate impacts (e.g., difficult travel) probabilities peaking
at 60-70% Monday night into Tuesday morning south of I-80.
That`s not to say that travel won`t become difficult Monday; it
will. The high snow rates mentioned above will reduce visibilities
and lead to rapid accumulations on area roads. The Monday
morning commute will coincide with the onset of snow at most
locations with the Monday evening commute likely becoming very
difficult. The travel impacts will extend through the morning
commute Tuesday.

[bud2380]

DVN very bullish on totals. 

[jcwxguy]

[clintbeed1993]

I don't think the models are able to pick up on the warm thermals down in northern MO. NWS is saying it will stay a mix for most of the event now and only have a few inches of accumulation forecasted, while models and especially the ensembles are extremely bullish with two to three times that. Does anyone know if models typically can't account for the mix and show it as all snow when it won't be?

[Grizzcoat]

[jcwxguy]

8 minutes ago, clintbeed1993 said:

I don't think the models are able to pick up on the warm thermals down in northern MO. NWS is saying it will stay a mix for most of the event now and only have a few inches of accumulation forecasted, while models and especially the ensembles are extremely bullish with two to three times that. Does anyone know if models can't account for the mix typically and show it as all snow when it won't be?

i know from past experiences and observations that thermal issues can cause havoc with projected snowfall on models, especially the ensembles. I would error on the side of caution in this case and not expect as much as the models and ensembles show, even when taking in consideration melting/compacting. i would use snow depth as a closer reality vs snowfall

[Grizzcoat]

What Jcwxguy said. It's a crapshoot that usually doesn't end well for accumulations on the higher end.

[jcwxguy]

[clintbeed1993]

5 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

i know from past experiences and observations that thermal issues can cause havoc with projected snowfall on models, especially the ensembles. I would error on the side of caution in this case and not expect as much as the models and ensembles show, even when taking in consideration melting/compacting. i would use snow depth as a closer reality vs snowfall

I assumed they weren't able to make that distinction very well. The cool thing for me is I can chase snowstorms. My parents live up in Aurora, NE while I live in Saint Joseph, MO.  Usually Aurora gets more snow so I can just drive there and enjoy the bigger totals and if once in a blue moon Northern MO gets a better snow, I can cash in on that too!

[Grizzcoat]

Won't post the entire AFD- but DMX mentions N shift and higher QPF and the typical stuff- but- I've never seen this before-

 May also have some seeder feeder assistance that could
actually start snow sooner in portions of southern Iowa provided
depths remain less than 5000` between the supercooled liquid
droplets closer to the surface and the ice crystals/snow aloft.