1/8-1/10 Panhandle Hook

[Minny_Weather]

GEFS still has quite the variation, mainly as it pertains to thermals 

 

GFS storm track

[KTPmidMO]

12z Euro run coming in colder so far.

[Black Hole]

Looks like 12z Euro might end up going a bit north too since the initial trough is lagging. We will see soon. 

[hawkstwelve]

Looking like a nice run-to-run change for my area on 500mb heights.

[hawkstwelve]

12z vs 00z Euro...

[Tom]

The Euro elongates the SLP way up into MN which appears to produce an inverted trough?  This does produce some snow farther north near IA/MN as the main low takes shape in TX.  Less of a dynamic storm in this set up.

 

[hawkstwelve]

Another 12z vs 00z MSLP comparison, along with snowfall total comparison through Tuesday evening.

[Black Hole]

The trough never cuts off as hard on the ECMWF so it retains a little cooler air on the backside. So even though the storm is weaker and further north it gives me a bit more snow anyway. The 10-1 maps look like 1-2" so with appropriate SLP ratios that's probably like an inch. I guess its something. 

[Money]

Euro is bad for a lot of areas (as in no snow)

[Black Hole]

It won't really pertain to this storm, but I like how it stays colder in northwest Canada since the trough remains more focused, might help with other snow chances down the road. 

[KTPmidMO]

Boy that run sucked for snow here in central Missouri compared to 00z run. Is this gonna be another storm where we just cant get the cold?

[Hoosier]

What a rug puller of a Euro run.  Lol

[bud2380]

Long ways out, but that run of the Euro was very disappointing.  

[Tom]

It'll be a noteworthy trend if the EPS pulls back on the snow mean...

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, Tom said:

It'll be a noteworthy trend if the EPS pulls back on the snow mean...

I'd rather see the model foolishness now instead of at 3-4 days out (of course it happens then too sometimes).  It's still like 6 days until this thing enters the Plains.  Long time to go.

[mlgamer]

In regards to the LRC, I think the CMC solution is the best match from the 12z runs this morning. Thus, I am somewhat optimistic the GFS and Euro could trend a little more favorably for MBY in future runs.

[hawkstwelve]

12z EPS shifted south from 00z and increased totals for some in Missouri and surrounding areas. 

[mlgamer]

7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z EPS shifted south from 00z and increased totals for some in Missouri and surrounding areas. 

Pretty much all of that in southern KS is from the 1st system. System #2 is a no show...darn it. lol

[hawkstwelve]

12z EPS control run after the first storm and then again near the end of the run. A lot of the fill-in happens with the system around the 12th.

[Tom]

The 12z JMA looks a lot better overall...

 

[hawkstwelve]

12z EPS probabilities of 3+ inches. Again, a pretty decent shift south with the heaviest axis vs it's 00z run. 

[Minny_Weather]

38 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z EPS probabilities of 3+ inches. Again, a pretty decent shift south with the heaviest axis vs it's 00z run. 

Even if my place is in a bad spot on there, I'm happy to see the North shore in the >90% zone. They need the snow the most.

[tStacsh]

Watch this end up being an EC storm

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

Gfs seems better this run so far

[hawkstwelve]

18z vs 12z GFS...

[jcwxguy]

Crushes central and eastern Nebraska 

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

Gfs seems better this run so far

Katy bar the door

[hawkstwelve]

18z vs 12z GFS snowfall totals through Tuesday afternoon. Looks kind of Canadian-like with the more slanted heavier axis instead of running straight W/E.

 

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

 

[jcwxguy]

[winterfreak]

Caught in between per usual.

[Grizzcoat]

Right now it appears the GFS/CMC are tight with each other and that Uncle Ukie is trying to join the party but can't get a ride. The Euro is not invited. 

[mlgamer]

Yeah, that 18z GFS looks a lot better as others have noted and I thought it might come around again. Of course, it does put me in a snow hole but nothing to be concerned about for now.

[hawkstwelve]

18z vs 12z GEFS snowfall totals through Wednesday morning...

[Andie]

I don’t know what you call it.  We call it rain.  Much needed.  

[Clinton]

6 hours ago, mlgamer said:

In regards to the LRC, I think the CMC solution is the best match from the 12z runs this morning. Thus, I am somewhat optimistic the GFS and Euro could trend a little more favorably for MBY in future runs.

Todays 12z Euro did take the low into the Ark/Lo/Tex region  similar to cycle 1.  I think there is going to be a lot more twist and turns the next couple days.  

Todays 12z Euro:

Cycle 1:

[hawkstwelve]

Looks like the CMC has moved further south, especially noticeable when compared to last night's 00z.

[KTPmidMO]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looks like the CMC has moved further south, especially noticeable when compared to last night's 00z.

Can you post it?