1/8-1/10 Panhandle Hook

[Tom]

1 hour ago, sumweatherdude said:

When the models started advertising this system a few days ago, I remember thinking that I couldn't see why they were cutting the system north of KC.  Not just the snow.  But the low pressure itself.  There isn't a glaring SER to force the cut, and things didn't look so amplified that it would force that northwest route.  Plus, there's Friday's system to sort of pave the way and push any blocking out of the way.   It looks like the southern track is occurring.  Does anyone know if my thinking was correct on why the southern track seems be panning out?  Or is it just a coincidence?  

I'd have to say that intensifying and neg tilted troughs almost always cut NE unless there is a glaring Canadian HP right over head.  We don't have that in this particular scenario like we have seen in previous storms.  The Christmas storm is a perfect example as there was tons of blocking up top.

 

I also learned from listening to JB talk about how strong storms love to track towards a Ridge...low and behold, the ridge is over the GL's/Ontario...its like a magnet to attract big storms...

[hawkstwelve]

Some early look comparisons between 12z and 00z Euro...

[hawkstwelve]

I'm not sure what to make of that northern branch of the system. Some models have it, some don't. It looks kinda odd to my eye but I'm not as familiar with behavior of lows ejecting out of the Rockies so maybe it's not uncommon to have it expand like that?

[Tom]

Much better look compared to the 12z run from yesterday that was a disaster...

[hawkstwelve]

A few more comparisons as the storm gets its act together and heads for the GL...

[Black Hole]

I'm not really sure why it tries to hold onto more rain over my area being in the northwest quadrant with colder air pouring in. But still a reasonable run with at least a chance of something. 

[hawkstwelve]

Of course, just as I tell my wife that it's looking less likely for snow with the initial system on Monday, the Euro comes in with 8+ inches up here. 

[gabel23]

Ok just want to get everything straight with today's runs. 12z GFS goes south and crushes Kansas. The GEFS mean is wider and a more north. CMC goes south much like the 12z GFS and the EURO stays pretty much where it was last night. Ok then I think we got this handled! LOL. One thing that was mentioned earlier; if the LRC is 45 days this would fall right in line with the storm back on Nov. 25th that crushed Central Kansas. 

[hawkstwelve]

Total snow comparisons for this system...

[KTPmidMO]

Which has been the most consistent model at this range this year?

[hawkstwelve]

5 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

Which has been the most consistent model at this range this year?

In general, it's always a safer bet to side with the Euro within the 5-6 day range. More often than not the other models move towards the Euro solution when they look different. At least that has been my experience, especially in the extremely hard to forecast PNW.

That being said every model has been struggling mightily lately, including the GraphCast AI model which generally scores above GFS/CMC/Euro. 500mb skill scores for GFS/Euro are below for the most recent 12z run and the second chart includes GraphCast but is from the 12z runs yesterday.

[bud2380]

8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Total snow comparisons for this system...

Similar in many ways to the 00z run, just lowered amounts pretty much everywhere.  Not a bad run for my area though, however I'm still hoping it inches further NW and draws in a little more cold air. 

[bud2380]

Looking at 10:1 ratios just to get an idea of where the heavier bands of snow are falling.  Takes it right through the DVN forecast area.  Just need a little more cold air to work it's way in and ratios will improve.  It's not often we get significantly less than 10:1 ratios here, especially in January.  So it's possible 10:1 gets us closer to expected totals anyways. 

 

[bud2380]

850 and 925mb temps well below freezing, yet surface temps above freezing by 2-3 degrees in many locations.  Just seems unusual to have such warm surface temperatures, with such favorable upper air temps.  Not that it can't happen, but sure seems like once the snow starts falling these temps should crash down a few degrees at least. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

850 and 925mb temps well below freezing, yet surface temps above freezing by 2-3 degrees in many locations.  Just seems unusual to have such warm surface temperatures, with such favorable upper air temps.  Not that it can't happen, but sure seems like once the snow starts falling these temps should crash down a few degrees at least. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'd rather see it colder than that aloft, especially at 925 mb.  But I think if rates get heavy enough that it will force temps down toward 32 degrees.

[hawkstwelve]

12z vs 00z EPS storm total comparison...

[Iceresistance]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z vs 00z EPS storm total comparison...

You haven't seen the 500 mb Anomaly...

[Tom]

4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z vs 00z EPS storm total comparison...

That swath of snow is eerily similar to GHD-1 storm...Feb '11

[tStacsh]

Looks like a lot of slop.  Just no cold air yet.  

[hawkstwelve]

AI models are starting to pick up on more of that northern extent of precip. Interesting...

 

[bud2380]

Model tracking will really start to get fun when we get inside 84 hours and we can look at the NAM, RDPS and 6z/18z Euro runs.  

[winterfreak]

24 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Model tracking will really start to get fun when we get inside 84 hours and we can look at the NAM, RDPS and 6z/18z Euro runs.  

Yep. Looking forward to the 84hr NAM clown maps

[bud2380]

Pretty serious wording by DVN in their afternoon AFD.  

 

- Potential strong winter storm early next week

Early next week: Global models consistent in tracking a
strengthening Panhandle Hook cyclone from the southern Plains to
near St. Louis to northern Indiana. This "golden path"
historically has brought the forecast area heavy snowfall. The
ECMWF/GFS deepens the low pressure system to 977 mb as it
tracks into the Great Lakes region by Tuesday. This will be
accompanied by a potent upper level trough/closed low with
intense forcing.

[tStacsh]

Probably going to be the dreaded rain to snow/dry slot here with that track right over my head.   Pretty good agreement so far from the models.  Definitely going to be a storm.  

[bud2380]

DMX AFD - They outline what I was talking about earlier with that moisture in NE and how it just doesn't shift east into Iowa.  Right now they are not too optimistic for those near Des Moines, but better chances in for southern/SE Iowa. 

 

Similar to yesterdays data, there remains an
inverted trough extending north into the Missouri River Valley by
12z Monday with the first push of moisture. As the main upper level
wind fields associated with the strong jet max round the base of the
trough Monday afternoon, the low will deepen more rapidly between
18z Monday into 18z Tuesday. As this transition occurs, the forcing
will wane across Nebraska while the main system becomes the focus of
lift/forcing farther south into Missouri/southern/southeast Iowa
where a more pronounced deformation axis is favored to develop. An
analysis of ensemble member grouping shows that the GFS ensemble is
clustering higher snowfall farther north into southern Iowa, despite
the deterministic run showing the heaviest snowband in central to
northeast Missouri. The Euro, however shows more snow farther north
with the deterministic solution vs member spread and into
southern/southeast Iowa.

[bud2380]

Ok 18z GFS time.  I'm ready for a 150 mile shift north to throw a huge wrench into this thing. LOL.  

[BMT]

I like the end of DVNs afd as well 

Beyond this system a major pattern change to a snowier and
colder regime is expected at least through the middle of January.

[CentralNebWeather]

ICON at 120 hours

[hawkstwelve]

You can see a slight trend of the northern extent of the precip over the past three GFS runs. Might look more like the Euro in a couple more runs.

[hawkstwelve]

That leads to much snowier solution for CentralNeb's area so far...

[CentralNebWeather]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

That leads to much snowier solution for CentralNeb's area so far...

Just noticed that. NWS Hastings is monitoring, but still much uncertainty. Yep. 

[hawkstwelve]

A much larger difference is noticeable on the next frame. CentralNeb went from 3 inches to 11. 

Starting to reach closer to my neck of the woods too...

[gabel23]

Ugly dry air really getting into my area these past couple runs. Don’t like that.

[bud2380]

Slight tick NW on the GFS this run.  A little better for MBY.  75 miles further NW and then I'll really be happy.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Slight tick NW on the GFS this run.  A little better for MBY.  75 miles further NW and then I'll really be happy.

 

I know it's early but 10:1 probably isn't going to work for this storm in most areas.  I'd probably take Kuchera and possibly even incorporate the snow depth maps.

[winterfreak]

18z GFS. Only down from here:

[james1976]

Not looking good for MN. Must be a lot of dry air.

[CentralNebWeather]

We had a teacher work day today. Students start back tomorrow. A couple teachers asked me my thoughts on a snow day Monday. I told them there’s too much uncertainty. They have seen the apps that are saying “watching a potential winter storm”. 

[hawkstwelve]

14 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Not looking good for MN. Must be a lot of dry air.

Thursday system helps fill in MN a bit more. Keeping my eye on this one for our area especially. Some models have it further south but there appears to be (maybe maybe maybe) some growing consensus for this solution.